# LoL: CBLOL 2026 Split 1 Winner

> CBLOL 2026 Split 1 Winner: RED Canids leads at 36%, runner-up 34% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lol-cblol-split-1-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:41.331Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-06

## Headline

- Leader: CBLOL 2026 Split 1 Winner: RED Canids at 36%
- Runner-up: CBLOL 2026 Split 1 Winner: FURIA at 34%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $22

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBLOL 2026 Split 1 Winner: RED Canids | 36¢ | −1pp | $22 | polymarket | /markets/lol-cblol-2026-split-1-winner-red-canids-polymarket-0x962437fa39d544a8877cfd1495a5fd4253e42a6a1680b5d1575de2af61bccaf3 |
| CBLOL 2026 Split 1 Winner: FURIA | 34¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/lol-cblol-2026-split-1-winner-furia-polymarket-0x84113d6b360aab26706b2cf511a3545d9db9aa779cbb39bfdc4f9df9f58214bc |
| CBLOL 2026 Split 1 Winner: LOUD | 30¢ | +6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/lol-cblol-2026-split-1-winner-loud-polymarket-0x6c45d0711dcd7b202e36d29ae17e8152fe3c4e112950d09ca559e7f45206c88a |
| CBLOL 2026 Split 1 Winner: paiN Gaming | 19¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/lol-cblol-2026-split-1-winner-pain-gaming-polymarket-0x0de538b796044ebab4a9b992d4acf9a9afdf89479918c85d55d6d844a7fc795f |
| CBLOL 2026 Split 1 Winner: Keyd Stars | 9¢ | −28pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/lol-cblol-2026-split-1-winner-keyd-stars-polymarket-0x880adf690872257a73e9436ae626c859eb3b884de21e968631fe2b8b2c09e19c |
| CBLOL 2026 Split 1 Winner: LOS | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/lol-cblol-2026-split-1-winner-los-polymarket-0x0e2327486d4a528246c742b31f2dc2e6c12de158b9d9fdb45f9e8d5424fc9810 |
| CBLOL 2026 Split 1 Winner: Fluxo W7M | 4¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/lol-cblol-2026-split-1-winner-fluxo-w7m-polymarket-0x966e6012d4f89326890850e2115f5034bbaad16dea8d8b6923a799578a5b6e9f |
| CBLOL 2026 Split 1 Winner: Leviatán | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/lol-cblol-2026-split-1-winner-leviatn-polymarket-0xfc7efb4a348b46f530a0f43decdbae85b9c3af61a8f695cafc502b194003f10f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | CBLOL 2026 Split 1 Winner: RED Canids | CBLOL 2026 Split 1 Winner: FURIA | CBLOL 2026 Split 1 Winner: LOUD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 47 | 18 | 7 |
| 2026-05-02 | 52 | 18 | 7 |
| 2026-05-06 | 25 | 28 | 26 |
| 2026-05-08 | 37 | 35 | 26 |
| 2026-05-09 | 36 | 35 | 32 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · CBLOL 2026 Split 1 Winner: Keyd Stars −28pp 43→15¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · CBLOL 2026 Split 1 Winner: RED Canids −27pp 52→25¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · CBLOL 2026 Split 1 Winner: LOUD +19pp 7→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · CBLOL 2026 Split 1 Winner: FURIA +15pp 13→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · CBLOL 2026 Split 1 Winner: RED Canids +12pp 25→37¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 14% probability represents the market's current estimate that the outcome identified by contract 0x880adf690872257a73e9436ae626c859eb3b884de21e968631fe2b8b2c09e19c will occur in CBLOL 2026 Split 1. The relatively low probability reflects either high competitive uncertainty or a perception that a specific team faces structural disadvantages heading into the split. Market participants are likely weighing team roster changes, recent performance metrics, and coaching staff adjustments against each other. The main resolution driver will be the split's actual tournament results, with regular season outcomes providing early signals that could shift probabilities significantly. Early matches in the split schedule will be the critical catalyst for uncertainty reduction, as they'll provide concrete data on team coordination, meta adaptation, and individual player performance against competitors.

### Key factors

- Red Canids trades at 45¢ on the primary market while the aggregated leader sits at 14¢, indicating potential disagreement across different contract specifications or market inefficiency
- 24-hour trading volume on the primary contract ($1057) is 2.5x higher than the runner-up ($417), suggesting active price discovery but concentrated on one outcome
- The three Polymarket contracts average to 8%, which is below the 14% headline probability, indicating the leader contract may be pricing different conditions or attracting different trader preferences
- No recent contract additions or volume spikes are evident, suggesting traders are waiting for scheduled matches or roster announcements to reassess
- The gap between the 14% leader and 7% runner-up represents only 7 percentage points absolute difference, indicating genuinely competitive uncertainty rather than consensus

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lol-cblol-split-1-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=lol-cblol-split-1-winner

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