# LoL: LRS 2026 Split 1 Winner

> LRS 2026 Split 1 Winner: Volticons leads at 66%, runner-up 65% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 5 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lol-lrs-split-1-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T00:05:14.298Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-09

## Headline

- Leader: LRS 2026 Split 1 Winner: Volticons at 66%
- Runner-up: LRS 2026 Split 1 Winner: Golden Lions at 65%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $35

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LRS 2026 Split 1 Winner: Volticons | 66¢ | +6pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/lol-lrs-2026-split-1-winner-volticons-polymarket-0x1e4512c6edbc3798af8866a7399542eff053192c11766a82916d840ec3f76058 |
| LRS 2026 Split 1 Winner: Golden Lions | 65¢ | ±0 | $25 | polymarket | /markets/lol-lrs-2026-split-1-winner-golden-lions-polymarket-0x2e980f8d6d5b2e0ed46a5e2d90f4e7277436dfd25053ee9370a28c563e40ffa3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | LRS 2026 Split 1 Winner: Volticons | LRS 2026 Split 1 Winner: Golden Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 24 | 11 |
| 2026-05-02 | 16 | 18 |
| 2026-05-09 | 68 | 64 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · LRS 2026 Split 1 Winner: Golden Lions +23pp 18→41¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · LRS 2026 Split 1 Winner: Volticons +18pp 16→34¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · LRS 2026 Split 1 Winner: Golden Lions +14pp 50→64¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · LRS 2026 Split 1 Winner: Volticons +14pp 34→48¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · LRS 2026 Split 1 Winner: Volticons +14pp 48→62¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

Maze Gaming is currently priced at a 48% probability to win the LRS 2026 Split 1 championship, making them the favorite but not heavily favored—roughly 7 percentage points ahead of their nearest competitor. This probability reflects market assessment of their roster strength, recent performance, and consistency relative to other regional teams. The pricing would move based on roster changes, playoff seeding announcements, or team performance in preliminary matches. The main catalyst for resolution is the LRS Split 1 playoffs, where final standings and bracket results will determine the actual winner. Currently modest trading volume ($417 over 24 hours in the runner-up contract) suggests limited liquidity, which can amplify price swings if new information emerges about team composition or injuries.

### Key factors

- Maze Gaming's 48% probability is 7 points above the runner-up, indicating clear but not overwhelming market confidence in their championship chances
- The five-way market structure means the leader winning ~48% implies three other teams share roughly 52% combined probability, reflecting competitive uncertainty
- LRS 2026 Split 1 playoffs represent the primary resolution event; regular season performance and seeding will be the key catalyst for probability shifts
- Low trading volumes in related contracts ($208–$417 daily) suggest the market remains information-constrained and could reprice significantly on roster announcements or match results
- Comparison to other regional tournaments shows varying confidence levels (RED Canids at 45% in CBLOL, Bilibili at 48% in LPL), reflecting different competitive tiers and team stability

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lol-lrs-split-1-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=lol-lrs-split-1-winner

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