# LoL

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 15% across 7 contracts — refreshed 17 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lol
Updated: 2026-06-26T00:20:50.030Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-27

## Headline

- Probability: 15% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $14K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G2 Esports | 5¢ | ±0 | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-g2-esports-win-league-of-legends-msi-g2-espor-kalshi-kxlol-msi26-g2 |
| T1 | 30¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-t1-win-league-of-legends-msi-t1-kalshi-kxlol-msi26-t1 |
| Hanwha Life Esports | 36¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-hanwha-life-esports-win-league-of-legends-msi-kalshi-kxlol-msi26-hle |
| LYON | 3¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-lyon-win-league-of-legends-msi-lyon-kalshi-kxlol-msi26-ly |
| Bilibili Gaming | 27¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-bilibili-gaming-win-league-of-legends-msi-bil-kalshi-kxlol-msi26-blg |
| Top Esports | 3¢ | −1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-top-esports-win-league-of-legends-msi-top-esp-kalshi-kxlol-msi26-tes |
| Karmine Corp | 3¢ | −3pp | $53 | kalshi | /markets/will-karmine-corp-win-league-of-legends-msi-karmin-kalshi-kxlol-msi26-kc |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | 9 |
| 2026-06-19 | 23 |
| 2026-06-25 | 17 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-21 · LYON −77pp 85→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · LYON −8pp 10→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Karmine Corp −6pp 12→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · T1 +5pp 22→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · G2 Esports −4pp 7→3¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents how likely a specific outcome is across 20 different League of Legends related contracts, with the leading outcome priced at 64%. The market reflects significant uncertainty, as the runner-up sits only 1 percentage point lower at 63%, indicating competitive odds across multiple scenarios. Factors driving the current level include recent tournament performance data, roster changes, patch updates, and regional strength assessments. The main catalyst resolving this uncertainty would be upcoming official League competition results or announcements—likely scheduled matches or tournament brackets that determine which outcome materializes. Movement in these prices typically follows concrete competitive events rather than speculation, as each contract tracks a distinct resolution condition tied to verifiable League of Legends outcomes.

### Key factors

- The top two outcomes differ by only 1 percentage point (64% vs 63%), indicating the market hasn't settled on a clear frontrunner despite 20 contracts competing
- No contracts are currently bound to orders, suggesting limited recent trading activity and potential price stability or illiquidity
- Resolution depends on specific League of Legends competitive events with known schedules and verifiable outcomes
- Polymarket contracts show an average of 39% across all 20 outcomes, indicating probabilities are distributed rather than concentrated on one scenario
- Tournament patches, roster announcements, or regional qualifier results would likely shift market prices materially

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lol
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=lol

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.