# Will Rosena Allin-Khan win the 2028 London mayoral election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 10% across 6 contracts — refreshed 45 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/londonmayor
Updated: 2026-08-24T22:20:50.878Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2029-05-01

## Headline

- Probability: 10% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cleverly | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-james-cleverly-win-the-2028-london-mayoral-el-kalshi-kxlondonmayor-28may01-jcle |
| Laila Cunningham | 17¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-laila-cunningham-win-the-2028-london-mayoral-kalshi-kxlondonmayor-28may01-lcun |
| Mete Coban | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mete-coban-win-the-2028-london-mayoral-electi-kalshi-kxlondonmayor-28may01-mcob |
| Rosena Allin-Khan | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rosena-allin-khan-win-the-2028-london-mayoral-kalshi-kxlondonmayor-28may01-rall |
| Sadiq Khan | 26¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sadiq-khan-win-the-2028-london-mayoral-electi-kalshi-kxlondonmayor-28may01-skha |
| Zack Polanski | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-zack-polanski-win-the-2028-london-mayoral-ele-kalshi-kxlondonmayor-28may01-zpol |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | 26 |
| 2026-08-17 | 28 |
| 2026-08-23 | 1 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market estimates a 12% chance that Rosena Allin-Khan, the current Labour MP for Tooting, will win the mayoralty of London in the 2028 election. The probability reflects her status as a prominent Labour politician in a city with strong Labour support, but tempered by the crowded field of potential candidates and the uncertainty inherent in multi-candidate races held more than two years away. The main factors shaping this estimate are her current political profile and whether Labour retains momentum heading into 2028, alongside competition from other Labour figures and the Conservative challenger. The December 2028 mayoral election itself will be the primary catalyst that resolves this uncertainty, though earlier developments like formal candidate announcements or significant shifts in London-wide polling could meaningfully shift expectations.

### Key factors

- Allin-Khan would need to secure Labour's official nomination in a potentially contested internal process with other prominent party members also interested in the role
- Labour's electoral standing in London and nationally between now and 2028 will influence baseline expectations for any Labour candidate's viability
- Her profile as an MP and former shadow minister makes her a credible contender but not a prohibitive favorite, suggesting other candidates are viewed as realistic alternatives
- The incumbent mayor's political affiliation and performance track record typically influences voter behavior and candidate recruitment in mayoral races
- Historical London mayoral elections show variation in outcomes despite demographic favorability, indicating that frontrunner status is not determinative

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/londonmayor
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=londonmayor
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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