# Will more than 6 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 13% across 7 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/loseprimaryhoused
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:43.678Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $383

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 8¢ | −1pp | $176 | kalshi | /markets/will-exactly-5-house-democratic-members-lose-their-kalshi-kxloseprimaryhoused-26nov03-5 |
| 6 | 8¢ | ±0 | $174 | kalshi | /markets/will-exactly-6-house-democratic-members-lose-their-kalshi-kxloseprimaryhoused-26nov03-6 |
| 2 | 18¢ | +2pp | $15 | kalshi | /markets/will-exactly-2-house-democratic-members-lose-their-kalshi-kxloseprimaryhoused-26nov03-2 |
| 7 or more | 17¢ | +1pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-more-than-6-house-democratic-members-lose-the-kalshi-kxloseprimaryhoused-26nov03-6t |
| 1 | 9¢ | +1pp | $8 | kalshi | /markets/will-exactly-1-house-democratic-members-lose-their-kalshi-kxloseprimaryhoused-26nov03-1 |
| 3 | 16¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-exactly-3-house-democratic-members-lose-their-kalshi-kxloseprimaryhoused-26nov03-3 |
| 4 | 13¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-exactly-4-house-democratic-members-lose-their-kalshi-kxloseprimaryhoused-26nov03-4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 6 |
| 2026-04-25 | 16 |
| 2026-05-01 | 12 |
| 2026-05-09 | 14 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · 2 +6pp 7→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · 6 −3pp 11→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · 3 +3pp 13→16¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract measures whether more than six House Democrats will lose their primaries during the 2026 election cycle. Currently priced at 11%, it reflects relatively low expected primary turnover among Democrats. Primary losses typically occur when incumbents face strong challengers from within their party due to redistricting changes, ideological challenges, or local electoral dynamics. The probability would move higher if multiple high-profile Democratic incumbents entered contested primary races, or lower if primary fields remain largely uncontested. The key driver of this outcome will be the actual primary results as they occur throughout spring and summer 2026, with early contests in key states like California, New York, and Illinois providing initial signals about the intensity of intra-party competition.

### Key factors

- Historical baseline: In recent House cycles, Democrats typically lose 2-4 primary incumbents; exceeding 6 would represent significantly elevated turnover
- Redistricting effects: Post-2020 redistricting is substantially complete; remaining map changes would be limited to special circumstances
- Incumbent challenges: Multiple Democratic representatives currently face primary challengers from the left or moderate wings; tracking active contests can indicate trajectory
- Early primary results: Primary elections begin in spring 2026; outcomes in March-April contests provide predictive information for later races
- Retirement rates: The number of Democratic retirements (which reduce primary loss count) remains uncertain and affects baseline denominator of contested seats

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/loseprimaryhoused
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=loseprimaryhoused
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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