# Will more than 6 House Republican members lose their primary in 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 20% across 4 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/loseprimaryhouser
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.980Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 20% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $251

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 8¢ | −1pp | $190 | kalshi | /markets/will-exactly-5-house-republican-members-lose-their-kalshi-kxloseprimaryhouser-26nov03-5 |
| 3 | 20¢ | +2pp | $38 | kalshi | /markets/will-exactly-3-house-republican-members-lose-their-kalshi-kxloseprimaryhouser-26nov03-3 |
| 4 | 42¢ | +3pp | $17 | kalshi | /markets/will-exactly-4-house-republican-members-lose-their-kalshi-kxloseprimaryhouser-26nov03-4 |
| 7 or more | 11¢ | ±0 | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-more-than-6-house-republican-members-lose-the-kalshi-kxloseprimaryhouser-26nov03-6t |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 18 |
| 2026-06-12 | 18 |
| 2026-06-19 | 8 |
| 2026-06-26 | 13 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · 4 +11pp 24→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · 5 +10pp 2→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · 3 +8pp 11→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · 3 −6pp 12→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · 7 or more +6pp 5→11¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the chance that more than 6 House Republicans will be defeated in primary elections during the 2026 cycle. Primary losses among majority-party members typically occur when sitting members face strong challengers from their own party, often due to ideological divides, redistricting changes, or anti-incumbent sentiment. The 16% probability suggests markets view this as unlikely but plausible. Primary elections occur at varying dates through summer 2026, with early contests already underway in some states and major primaries scheduled through August. The outcome depends on factors including the strength of challenger recruitment within Republican ranks, the degree of party fragmentation over key policy issues, and whether any high-profile incumbent vulnerabilities emerge. Historical context shows that 6+ primary losses for the majority party in a single cycle is relatively rare, which partly explains the low current probability.

### Key factors

- Primary election schedule and results through August 2026, with early-state contests in March-May determining baseline primary competitiveness
- Number and quality of primary challengers recruited against sitting House Republicans, particularly those in competitive general seats or with controversial records
- Degree of intra-party conflict within the House Republican conference, including any formal challenge networks or ideological factional organizing
- Redistricting effects and demographic changes in individual districts that could unexpectedly shift primary electorates favoring challengers
- Historical trend data: the number of House majority-party primary losses in 2018 and 2022 cycles as baseline comparisons for 2026

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/loseprimaryhouser
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=loseprimaryhouser
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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