# Will exactly 1 Senate Democratic members lose their primary in 2026

> 0 leads at 79%, runner-up 14% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/loseprimarysenated
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.336Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: 0 at 79%
- Runner-up: 1 at 14%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $81

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 79¢ | ±0 | $13 | kalshi | /markets/will-exactly-0-senate-democratic-members-lose-thei-kalshi-kxloseprimarysenated-26nov03-0 |
| 1 | 14¢ | +6pp | $58 | kalshi | /markets/will-exactly-1-senate-democratic-members-lose-thei-kalshi-kxloseprimarysenated-26nov03-1 |
| 2 | 5¢ | +1pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-exactly-2-senate-democratic-members-lose-thei-kalshi-kxloseprimarysenated-26nov03-2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 0 | 1 | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | 80 | — | — |
| 2026-04-22 | — | 10 | — |
| 2026-04-24 | 78 | — | — |
| 2026-04-26 | 79 | 9 | 3 |
| 2026-04-28 | 81 | — | 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | 84 | 11 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 8 | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 80 | 10 | 5 |
| 2026-05-07 | 80 | 10 | — |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 16 | — |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · 1 +6pp 10→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · 1 −4pp 12→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · 0 −4pp 84→80¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates an 83% probability that exactly one Democratic senator will lose their primary election in 2026. Primary losses among incumbent senators are relatively rare, particularly within a single party in one cycle. The high probability reflects expectations of strong Democratic incumbency advantages and limited primary challenges, though it could shift if high-profile primaries develop or if incumbent senators face unexpected internal-party opposition. The outcome will be definitively settled after all Senate primaries conclude in late 2026, with most states holding primaries between August and September.

### Key factors

- Number of vulnerable Democratic incumbents facing organized primary opposition as of spring 2026
- Fundraising and polling performance of Democratic senators relative to potential challengers in their respective states
- Turnout levels in Democratic primaries, which could amplify or diminish the impact of anti-incumbent sentiment
- Timing and intensity of internal party dynamics, particularly around policy disagreements or controversial votes
- Completion of all Senate Democratic primaries by November 2026, which will directly determine the outcome

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/loseprimarysenated
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=loseprimarysenated
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.