# Will exactly 0 Senate Democrats lose re-election in 2026

> Exactly 0 leads at 77%, runner-up 8% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/losereelectiondsen
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.789Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Exactly 0 at 77%
- Runner-up: Exactly 1 at 8%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 0 | 77¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-exactly-0-senate-democrats-lose-re-election-i-kalshi-kxlosereelectiondsen-2026-0 |
| Exactly 1 | 8¢ | −8pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-exactly-1-senate-democrats-lose-re-election-i-kalshi-kxlosereelectiondsen-2026-1 |
| Exactly 2 | 3¢ | — | $215 | kalshi | /markets/will-exactly-2-senate-democrats-lose-re-election-i-kalshi-kxlosereelectiondsen-2026-2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Exactly 0 | Exactly 1 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | — | 18 |
| 2026-06-19 | — | 15 |
| 2026-06-20 | 76 | 16 |
| 2026-06-21 | 77 | — |
| 2026-06-25 | 78 | 8 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-25 · Exactly 1 −8pp 16→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Exactly 1 −3pp 18→15¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability measures whether zero incumbent Senate Democrats will lose general elections in 2026. At 72%, the market implies it is significantly more likely that at least one Democrat will be defeated than that all will survive. The current probability reflects that Democrats hold 51 seats and face a favorable electoral map in 2026, with relatively few competitive races where incumbents are particularly vulnerable. The main downside risks are unexpected recruitment of strong Republican challengers in key states, deterioration of Democratic candidate quality, or major shifts in national political conditions that tighten races. The resolution will depend on general election results in November 2026, making overall Republican performance and state-level dynamics the primary drivers of movement between now and then.

### Key factors

- The 2026 Senate map favors Democrats with fewer seats in play and limited high-quality Republican pickup opportunities
- Current polling and historical incumbency advantage suggest most Democratic incumbents would survive even in a moderately unfavorable environment
- Republican primary outcomes and final candidate selection (note: 29-40% pricing on exact Republican primary loss counts) will influence competitive intensity in general elections
- Economic conditions and presidential approval in fall 2026 will shape overall electoral environment and potentially expose previously safe Democrats
- Early candidate recruitment and fundraising patterns through summer 2026 will signal which races may become genuinely competitive

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/losereelectiondsen
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=losereelectiondsen
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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