# Will at least 5 governors lose re-election in 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 13% across 6 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/losereelectiongov
Updated: 2026-06-26T14:20:49.707Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 0 | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-exactly-0-governors-lose-re-election-in-2026-kalshi-kxlosereelectiongov-2026-0 |
| Exactly 1 | 25¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-exactly-1-governor-lose-re-election-in-2026-e-kalshi-kxlosereelectiongov-2026-1 |
| Exactly 2 | 28¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-exactly-2-governors-lose-re-election-in-2026-kalshi-kxlosereelectiongov-2026-2 |
| Exactly 3 | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-exactly-3-governors-lose-re-election-in-2026-kalshi-kxlosereelectiongov-2026-3 |
| Exactly 4 | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-exactly-4-governors-lose-re-election-in-2026-kalshi-kxlosereelectiongov-2026-4 |
| 5 or more | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-at-least-5-governors-lose-re-election-in-2026-kalshi-kxlosereelectiongov-2026-5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | 8 |
| 2026-06-10 | 5 |
| 2026-06-17 | 25 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that five or more U.S. state governors will fail to win re-election in 2026. The current 13% probability reflects a relatively low expectation for this outcome. Gubernatorial re-election rates are historically high, with most sitting governors successfully defending their seats. The main factors driving this assessment are the political environment heading into the midterm period, state-specific political dynamics, and incumbent strength across various states. The key catalyst for resolving this uncertainty is the November 2026 general election, when all gubernatorial races will conclude. Leading up to that date, primary results in summer 2026 will provide early signals about incumbent vulnerability and challenger viability.

### Key factors

- Historical re-election rate for incumbent governors exceeds 70% in most midterm cycles, establishing a high baseline for incumbents to overcome this threshold
- State-by-state polling and approval ratings for current governors will indicate which incumbents face genuine competitive pressure versus comfortable re-election prospects
- Primary results during summer 2026 will reveal whether sitting governors face serious intra-party challenges that could weaken their general election positions
- The partisan composition of states with gubernatorial races and national political momentum in 2026 will affect electoral environments across different regions
- Candidate quality and campaign resources of challengers relative to incumbents will determine whether competitive races actually materialize

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/losereelectiongov
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=losereelectiongov
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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