# Will exactly 3 the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 20% across 4 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/losereelectionrsen
Updated: 2026-08-10T07:20:51.114Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 20% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $50

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more | 46¢ | −1pp | $50 | kalshi | /markets/will-at-least-5-the-senate-republicans-lose-re-ele-kalshi-kxlosereelectionrsen-2026-5 |
| Exactly 2 | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-exactly-2-the-senate-republicans-lose-re-elec-kalshi-kxlosereelectionrsen-2026-2 |
| Exactly 3 | 17¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-exactly-3-the-senate-republicans-lose-re-elec-kalshi-kxlosereelectionrsen-2026-3 |
| Exactly 4 | 14¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-exactly-4-the-senate-republicans-lose-re-elec-kalshi-kxlosereelectionrsen-2026-4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | 30 |
| 2026-07-27 | 32 |
| 2026-07-31 | 42 |
| 2026-08-10 | 47 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-08 · Exactly 4 −9pp 23→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-08 · 5 or more +4pp 42→46¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that exactly three Senate Republicans will fail to win re-election in 2026, neither more nor fewer. Currently at 16%, this reflects a scenario where Republicans face moderate but not severe headwinds. The current assessment appears anchored on competitive races in states like Maine (31¢ probability of GOP victory) and Ohio (very tight margins expected), while Republican strongholds like Wyoming and Kansas show strong incumbency advantages. The probability would rise if economic conditions deteriorate or presidential approval drops significantly, and would fall if Republicans consolidate support in currently contested races. The 2026 midterm election on November 3rd will definitively resolve this question, though Senate race dynamics will clarify substantially through summer polling and September primary results across key states.

### Key factors

- Maine Senate race competitiveness: GOP candidate probability at 31¢ suggests meaningful Democratic vulnerability in a traditionally competitive state
- Ohio margin expectations: Republican victory margin priced at only 6¢ for 4+ points indicates an extremely tight race in a key battleground
- Incumbent protection in safe states: Wyoming (85¢ for 30+ point margin) and Kansas (73¢ GOP win) show strong baseline Republican retention in non-competitive races
- Overall Senate control pricing at 50¢: Equal Republican-Democratic odds for chamber control suggest the electoral environment remains genuinely uncertain
- Specific threshold effect: Exactly three losses is a narrow band—more Democrats gaining seats would move the question into different territory

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/losereelectionrsen
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=losereelectionrsen
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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