# Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winner

> Closed. Last odds frozen 8 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/louisiana-democratic-senate-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-16

## Headline

- Leader: Jamie Davis Jr. at 89%
- Runner-up: Nick Albares at 10%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $153

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Davis Jr. | 89¢ | +5pp | $85 | polymarket | /markets/louisiana-democratic-senate-primary-winner-jamie-d-polymarket-0xf7327ee0a2475c2c9b4a1ac7bb4e1b49fce57c2a33ebf704e03630ec800f2944 |
| Nick Albares | 10¢ | +3pp | $68 | polymarket | /markets/louisiana-democratic-senate-primary-winner-nick-al-polymarket-0x51531de8c91851327a5c941d89c5b6210f507536e55f64d337995bf14dc204c0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Jamie Davis Jr. | Nick Albares |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 94 | 2 |
| 2026-06-05 | 93 | — |
| 2026-06-10 | 94 | 1 |
| 2026-06-11 | 94 | — |
| 2026-06-12 | — | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | 95 | 37 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-16 · Nick Albares +42pp 1→43¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-17 · Nick Albares −9pp 43→34¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-17 · Jamie Davis Jr. −6pp 96→90¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-18 · Jamie Davis Jr. +5pp 90→95¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-18 · Nick Albares +3pp 34→37¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 82% probability represents the market's assessment that a particular candidate will win the Louisiana Democratic Senate primary. This elevated level reflects confidence in that candidate's position relative to alternatives. The main factors supporting this probability are likely the candidate's polling lead, name recognition, or organizational advantages within the state Democratic apparatus. Conversely, the probability could shift downward if polling narrows, a rival candidate gains funding or endorsements, or voter preferences change as the primary approaches. The primary election date will ultimately resolve this outcome, though pre-election developments—such as debate performances, funding reports, or demographic shifts in voter enthusiasm—could meaningfully adjust the market's confidence level beforehand.

### Key factors

- The leading candidate holds an 82% implied probability versus 13% for the runner-up, indicating a significant but not overwhelming advantage with meaningful uncertainty remaining
- Primary election timing and whether voting has already begun or remains weeks away will determine how much opportunity exists for late-breaking shifts in voter support
- Polling data convergence or divergence in weeks preceding the primary will serve as a concrete signal of whether the frontrunner's position is solidifying or eroding
- Fundraising and endorsement announcements targeting the runner-up could signal organizational momentum that contradicts the current market probability
- Voter turnout patterns and demographic composition of actual primary voters, once available, will either confirm or challenge pre-election market expectations

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/louisiana-democratic-senate-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=louisiana-democratic-senate-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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