# Will Ellie and George finish 3 Place in Love Island UK Season 13

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 7% across 18 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/loveislandukrank
Updated: 2026-06-26T05:20:49.197Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-31

## Headline

- Probability: 7% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $750

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmine and Lorenzo | 22¢ | +10pp | $424 | kalshi | /markets/will-jasmine-and-lorenzo-finish-in-the-top-3-coupl-kalshi-kxloveislandukrank-26aug31rtop3-jalo |
| Lola and Sean | 32¢ | −4pp | $198 | kalshi | /markets/will-lola-and-sean-finish-in-the-top-3-couples-in-kalshi-kxloveislandukrank-26aug31rtop3-lose |
| Lola and Sean | 6¢ | ±0 | $78 | kalshi | /markets/will-lola-and-sean-finish-2nd-in-love-island-uk-se-kalshi-kxloveislandukrank-26aug31r2-lose |
| Mica and Samraj | 7¢ | −1pp | $50 | kalshi | /markets/will-mica-and-samraj-finish-in-the-top-3-couples-i-kalshi-kxloveislandukrank-26aug31rtop3-misa |
| Lola and Sean | 12¢ | −83pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lola-and-sean-finish-3rd-in-love-island-uk-se-kalshi-kxloveislandukrank-26aug31r3-lose |
| Ellie and George | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ellie-and-george-finish-3-place-in-love-islan-kalshi-kxloveislandukrank-26aug31r3-elge |
| Robyn and Sean | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-robyn-and-sean-finish-3rd-in-love-island-uk-s-kalshi-kxloveislandukrank-26aug31r3-rose |
| Angelista and Aidan | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-angelista-and-aidan-finish-2nd-in-love-island-kalshi-kxloveislandukrank-26aug31r2-anai |
| Angelista and Chidi | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-angelista-and-chidi-finish-2-place-in-love-is-kalshi-kxloveislandukrank-26aug31r2-anch |
| Angelista and Lorenzo | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-angelista-and-lorenzo-finish-2nd-in-love-isla-kalshi-kxloveislandukrank-26aug31r2-anlo |
| Angelista and Simba | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-angelista-and-simba-finish-2-place-in-love-is-kalshi-kxloveislandukrank-26aug31r2-ansi |
| Ellie and Finley | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ellie-and-finley-finish-2-place-in-love-islan-kalshi-kxloveislandukrank-26aug31r2-elfi |
| Ellie and George | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ellie-and-george-finish-2-place-in-love-islan-kalshi-kxloveislandukrank-26aug31r2-elge |
| Jasmine and George | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jasmine-and-george-finish-2-place-in-love-isl-kalshi-kxloveislandukrank-26aug31r2-jage |
| Jasmine and Lorenzo | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jasmine-and-lorenzo-finish-2nd-in-love-island-kalshi-kxloveislandukrank-26aug31r2-jalo |
| Lola and George | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lola-and-george-finish-2-place-in-love-island-kalshi-kxloveislandukrank-26aug31r2-loge |
| Mica and Aidan | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mica-and-aidan-finish-2nd-in-love-island-uk-s-kalshi-kxloveislandukrank-26aug31r2-miai |
| Mica and George | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mica-and-george-finish-2-place-in-love-island-kalshi-kxloveislandukrank-26aug31r2-mige |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | 7 |
| 2026-06-12 | 23 |
| 2026-06-19 | 48 |
| 2026-06-26 | 5 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-25 · Lola and Sean −83pp 95→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Lola and Sean −13pp 43→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Jasmine and Lorenzo +10pp 13→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Jasmine and Lorenzo +5pp 8→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Mica and Samraj +5pp 3→8¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects a 5% probability that Ellie and George will finish in third place in Love Island UK Season 13. The low odds suggest market participants view this pairing as unlikely to reach the final three, relative to other competing combinations like Angelista and George (6%) or Jasmine and George (4%). The probability is driven by two main dynamics: the relative popularity and coupling stability of Ellie and George compared to other pairings shown in contract prices, and the overall trajectory of their relationship within the villa. The market will resolve when the season finale airs, at which point the final three couples and their placement will be determined, providing complete certainty on this outcome.

### Key factors

- George is priced higher with Angelista (6%) than with Ellie (5%), suggesting market participants view the Angelista pairing as more likely to advance
- Ellie and George's coupling stability and screen time relative to competing pairs (Jasmine and George at 4%, Angelista and George at 4% for third place) indicates market sentiment on their viability
- Third-place finishes require both partners to remain coupled through the penultimate elimination, which depends on viewer voting and producer editing decisions not yet aired
- The 5% probability sits between zero (impossible) and higher pairing odds, suggesting the market assigns meaningful but low odds to this specific combination advancing to final three
- Contract volume at $94 24h is moderate, indicating some trading activity but less conviction than the 6¢ Angelista-George contract at $266 volume

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/loveislandukrank
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=loveislandukrank

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