# Will Trinity and Sincere finish 3rd in Love Island USA Season 8

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 22% across 17 contracts — refreshed 37 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/loveislandusarank
Updated: 2026-06-25T22:20:50.192Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-31

## Headline

- Probability: 22% (liquidity-weighted across 17 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $13K

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trinity and Bryce | 80¢ | +6pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-trinity-and-bryce-finish-in-the-top-3-couples-kalshi-kxloveislandusarank-26aug31rtop3-trbr |
| Kayda and Zach | 56¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-kayda-and-zach-finish-in-the-top-3-couples-in-kalshi-kxloveislandusarank-26aug31rtop3-kaza |
| Melanie and Sincere | 55¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-melanie-and-sincere-finish-in-the-top-3-coupl-kalshi-kxloveislandusarank-26aug31rtop3-mesi |
| Kayda and Zach | 29¢ | +6pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-kayda-and-zach-finish-2-place-in-love-island-kalshi-kxloveislandusarank-26aug31r2-kaza |
| Aniya and KC | 11¢ | +2pp | $984 | kalshi | /markets/will-aniya-and-kc-finish-in-the-top-3-couples-in-l-kalshi-kxloveislandusarank-26aug31rtop3-ankc |
| Melanie and Sincere | 34¢ | +8pp | $923 | kalshi | /markets/will-melanie-and-sincere-finish-2nd-in-love-island-kalshi-kxloveislandusarank-26aug31r2-mesi |
| Trinity and Bryce | 14¢ | +5pp | $693 | kalshi | /markets/will-trinity-and-bryce-finish-2nd-in-love-island-u-kalshi-kxloveislandusarank-26aug31r2-trbr |
| Melanie and Sincere | 20¢ | +2pp | $461 | kalshi | /markets/will-melanie-and-sincere-finish-3rd-in-love-island-kalshi-kxloveislandusarank-26aug31r3-mesi |
| Kenzie and Corbin | 6¢ | +10pp | $424 | kalshi | /markets/will-kenzie-and-corbin-finish-3-place-in-love-isla-kalshi-kxloveislandusarank-26aug31r3-keco |
| Kayda and Zach | 22¢ | +4pp | $406 | kalshi | /markets/will-kayda-and-zach-finish-3-place-in-love-island-kalshi-kxloveislandusarank-26aug31r3-kaza |
| Sol and Sincere | 6¢ | — | $222 | kalshi | /markets/will-sol-and-sincere-finish-in-the-top-3-couples-i-kalshi-kxloveislandusarank-26aug31rtop3-sosi |
| Parmida and Corbin | 7¢ | +1pp | $134 | kalshi | /markets/will-parmida-and-corbin-finish-3-place-in-love-isl-kalshi-kxloveislandusarank-26aug31r3-paco |
| Tierra and KC | 5¢ | −3pp | $134 | kalshi | /markets/will-tierra-and-kc-finish-3-place-in-love-island-u-kalshi-kxloveislandusarank-26aug31r3-tikc |
| Kenzie and Dylan | 10¢ | +2pp | $133 | kalshi | /markets/will-kenzie-and-dylan-finish-in-the-top-3-couples-kalshi-kxloveislandusarank-26aug31rtop3-kedy |
| Melanie and Corey | 9¢ | +1pp | $120 | kalshi | /markets/will-melanie-and-corey-finish-3-place-in-love-isla-kalshi-kxloveislandusarank-26aug31r3-mecry |
| Jaiden and Caleb | 8¢ | +1pp | $59 | kalshi | /markets/will-jaiden-and-caleb-finish-3-place-in-love-islan-kalshi-kxloveislandusarank-26aug31r3-jaca |
| Aniya and Corey | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-aniya-and-corey-finish-2-place-in-love-island-kalshi-kxloveislandusarank-26aug31r2-ancry |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 | 6 |
| 2026-06-11 | 22 |
| 2026-06-18 | 28 |
| 2026-06-25 | 25 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · Aniya and KC −23pp 41→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Trinity and Bryce +21pp 54→75¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Melanie and Sincere +20pp 30→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Kayda and Zach +18pp 25→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Kayda and Zach −17pp 43→26¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market represents traders' assessment of the likelihood that Trinity and Sincere will be the third-place finishers in Love Island USA Season 8. The 6% probability reflects a low but non-negligible chance of this specific outcome, suggesting most traders view them as unlikely to reach third place or finish together. Trading volume remains modest ($100 in 24 hours), indicating limited market activity. The probability would likely increase if the couple demonstrates strong compatibility and gains viewer support, or decrease if other couples establish themselves as more competitive. The resolution depends entirely on how the competition unfolds and viewer voting patterns throughout the remainder of the season. The final episode vote count will definitively settle this market once the show concludes.

### Key factors

- Current trading price of 7¢ reflects low confidence in this specific couple finishing exactly third, with modest 24-hour volume suggesting limited trader conviction
- Trinity appears in multiple related markets (paired with different partners and different placements), indicating her placement flexibility but uncertainty about final coupling
- No recent trading activity detected on the Trinity-Sean contract variant, suggesting reduced market interest in alternative Trinity pairings
- Market pricing (6%) places this outcome as a tail probability, substantially lower than implied baseline probability for any random couple in top-3 pool
- Resolution depends on show completion and final viewer votes, with actual filming already underway as of the market date

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/loveislandusarank
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=loveislandusarank

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