# Will the minimum temperature be 64-65° on Apr 22, 2026

> 68° to 69° leads at 34%, runner-up 17% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lowtaus
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:39.444Z
Category: climate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-09

## Headline

- Leader: 68° to 69° at 34%
- Runner-up: 66° to 67° at 17%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68° to 69° | 34¢ | +10pp | $536 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-minimum-temperature-be-68-69-on-may-9-202-kalshi-kxlowtaus-26may09-b68.5 |
| 66° to 67° | 17¢ | −1pp | $695 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-minimum-temperature-be-66-67-on-may-9-202-kalshi-kxlowtaus-26may09-b66.5 |
| 70° to 71° | 17¢ | +4pp | $424 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-minimum-temperature-be-70-71-on-may-9-202-kalshi-kxlowtaus-26may09-b70.5 |
| 72° or above | 10¢ | +6pp | $261 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-minimum-temperature-be-71-on-may-9-2026-7-kalshi-kxlowtaus-26may09-t71 |
| 64° to 65° | 6¢ | −3pp | $148 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-minimum-temperature-be-64-65-on-may-9-202-kalshi-kxlowtaus-26may09-b64.5 |
| 63° or below | 4¢ | −4pp | $188 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-minimum-temperature-be-64-on-may-9-2026-6-kalshi-kxlowtaus-26may09-t64 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 68° to 69° | 66° to 67° | 70° to 71° |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | 22 | 21 | 13 |
| 2026-05-09 | 32 | 20 | 17 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-09 · 68° to 69° +10pp 22→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · 72° or above +6pp 8→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · 70° to 71° +4pp 13→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · 63° or below −4pp 9→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · 64° to 65° −3pp 11→8¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lowtaus
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=lowtaus

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.