# Will the minimum temperature be 57-58° on Apr 21, 2026

> 66° to 67° leads at 47%, runner-up 16% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 24 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lowtlax
Updated: 2026-07-13T06:20:48.871Z
Category: climate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-14

## Headline

- Leader: 66° to 67° at 47%
- Runner-up: 68° or above at 16%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66° to 67° | 47¢ | −12pp | $469 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-minimum-temperature-be-66-67-on-jul-13-20-kalshi-kxlowtlax-26jul13-b66.5 |
| 68° or above | 16¢ | +11pp | $271 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-minimum-temperature-be-67-on-jul-13-2026-kalshi-kxlowtlax-26jul13-t67 |
| 64° to 65° | 12¢ | +6pp | $640 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-minimum-temperature-be-64-65-on-jul-13-20-kalshi-kxlowtlax-26jul13-b64.5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 66° to 67° | 68° or above | 64° to 65° |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | 58 | 4 | 7 |
| 2026-07-13 | 46 | 15 | 13 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-13 · 66° to 67° −12pp 58→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-13 · 68° or above +11pp 4→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-13 · 64° to 65° +6pp 7→13¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 44% probability that the minimum temperature on June 20, 2026 will fall between 60–61°F at a specific location. The leading outcome at 42¢ suggests most traders expect temperatures near this range, with meaningful probability also assigned to slightly cooler (58–59°F at 33¢) and warmer (62°F+ at 13¢) scenarios. Temperature predictions depend heavily on seasonal weather patterns, proximity to water bodies, urban heat effects, and typical June conditions at the measurement site. The outcome will be determined definitively on June 20, 2026, when the actual minimum temperature is recorded. Traders are pricing in typical early-summer variability; the concentration around 60–61°F reflects historical June norms rather than extreme heat or cold. Movement in contract prices would likely follow updated long-range forecasts, historical precedent comparisons, or shifts in atmospheric conditions as the date approaches.

### Key factors

- Historical June 20 minimum temperatures at this location: frequency of outcomes in the 60–61°F band versus 58–59°F or 62°F+ categories
- Long-range weather models available 14+ days before June 20: whether forecasters predict near-average, warmer, or cooler conditions
- Current atmospheric and sea-surface temperature patterns: how anomalies present now typically influence early-summer minimums at this site
- Recent trend in local minimum temperatures: whether the past 5–10 years show a shift from historical norms
- Time of day and cloud cover typical for June 20 at measurement location: factors determining overnight low formation

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lowtlax
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=lowtlax

## License

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