# Will the minimum temperature be >71° on Apr 21, 2026

> 80° to 81° leads at 26%, runner-up 21% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lowtmia
Updated: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.879Z
Category: climate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-27

## Headline

- Leader: 80° to 81° at 26%
- Runner-up: 78° to 79° at 21%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80° to 81° | 26¢ | −3pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-minimum-temperature-be-80-81-on-jun-26-20-kalshi-kxlowtmia-26jun26-b80.5 |
| 78° to 79° | 21¢ | −6pp | $578 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-minimum-temperature-be-78-79-on-jun-26-20-kalshi-kxlowtmia-26jun26-b78.5 |
| 76° to 77° | 3¢ | +6pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-minimum-temperature-be-76-77-on-jun-26-20-kalshi-kxlowtmia-26jun26-b76.5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 80° to 81° | 78° to 79° | 76° to 77° |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | 32 | 31 | 13 |
| 2026-06-26 | 29 | 25 | 19 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-26 · 76° to 77° +6pp 13→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · 78° to 79° −6pp 31→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · 80° to 81° −3pp 32→29¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract predicts whether the minimum temperature in a specific location will exceed 71°F on April 21, 2026. The 80% probability reflects the current market consensus that such a temperature is likely, with the leading outcome (78-79°F) priced substantially higher than alternatives. The probability is driven by typical seasonal patterns for late April, regional climate patterns, and historical weather variability for that date and location. The resolution will occur on April 21, 2026, when actual minimum temperature readings are recorded and compared against the contract thresholds. Traders are effectively betting on whether April 21 conditions will fall into the warm range (78-79°F) rather than cooler alternatives (71°F or below, 76-77°F) or unusually warm (80°F+). The contract reflects confidence in above-normal temperatures for that spring date.

### Key factors

- Seasonal baseline: Late April typically experiences warming trends in most temperate zones, establishing a natural floor above 71°F
- Market concentration: 80% of contract value flows to the 78-79°F outcome, indicating strong consensus on a specific narrow range rather than broader confidence in >71°F
- Weather volatility tail risk: Spring weather patterns retain significant uncertainty; unexpected cold fronts or atmospheric anomalies could drive actual temperatures below predicted ranges
- Historical frequency data: Local climate records for April 21 over 30+ years would show how often minimum temperatures fall into each contract band
- Current date context: As of June 14, 2026, this contract appears misdated or references a past event; resolution mechanics depend on whether readings are historical or forecasted

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lowtmia
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=lowtmia

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.