# Will the minimum temperature be 50-51° on Apr 21, 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 6 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lowtokc
Updated: 2026-07-17T19:20:51.099Z
Category: climate
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-07-15

## Headline

- Leader: 69° to 70° at 27%
- Runner-up: 71° to 72° at 25%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69° to 70° | 27¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-minimum-temperature-be-69-70-on-jul-17-20-kalshi-kxlowtokc-26jul17-b69.5 |
| 71° to 72° | 25¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-minimum-temperature-be-71-72-on-jul-17-20-kalshi-kxlowtokc-26jul17-b71.5 |
| 67° to 68° | 20¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-minimum-temperature-be-67-68-on-jul-17-20-kalshi-kxlowtokc-26jul17-b67.5 |
| 65° to 66° | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-minimum-temperature-be-65-66-on-jul-17-20-kalshi-kxlowtokc-26jul17-b65.5 |
| 64° or below | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-minimum-temperature-be-65-on-jul-17-2026-kalshi-kxlowtokc-26jul17-t65 |
| 73° or above | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-minimum-temperature-be-72-on-jul-17-2026-kalshi-kxlowtokc-26jul17-t72 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 69° to 70° | 71° to 72° | 67° to 68° |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | 27 | 13 | 20 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract asks whether the minimum temperature on May 15, 2026 will fall between 50 and 51 degrees Fahrenheit. At 27% probability, traders view this outcome as unlikely but plausible. The current market structure shows most traders expect May 15 to be warmer—the leading outcome (68-69°) reflects seasonal expectations for mid-May conditions in most US locations. The 50-51° range would require significant deviation from typical spring temperatures. What would move this probability up or down depends primarily on seasonal weather pattern forecasts and any shifts in the underlying climate model data. Resolution occurs on May 15, 2026, when the actual minimum temperature is recorded and the winning contract pays out while others expire worthless.

### Key factors

- The contract resolves May 15, 2026—this date is set and unchangeable, creating a hard deadline for weather data
- Market prices across the 6 temperature bins suggest median expectations around 68-71°, placing 50-51° in the lower tail of the distribution
- A 50-51° minimum in mid-May would require either an unusual cold snap or measurement at a location with cooler baseline conditions
- Current 27% probability is higher than the 17¢ price on the >71° outcome, indicating asymmetric risk perception across temperature ranges
- Trading volume concentrates on warmer outcomes (>70°), suggesting fewer active traders betting on the 50-51° scenario

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lowtokc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=lowtokc

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.