# Will the minimum temperature be 66-67° on Apr 21, 2026

> 78° or above leads at 75%, runner-up 18% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 11 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lowtphx
Updated: 2026-06-08T04:20:06.977Z
Category: climate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-08

## Headline

- Leader: 78° or above at 75%
- Runner-up: 76° to 77° at 18%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78° or above | 75¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-minimum-temperature-be-77-on-jun-8-2026-7-kalshi-kxlowtphx-26jun08-t77 |
| 76° to 77° | 18¢ | — | $123 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-minimum-temperature-be-76-77-on-jun-8-202-kalshi-kxlowtphx-26jun08-b76.5 |

## Analysis

This contract estimates an 75% probability that the minimum temperature in a specified location will exceed 77° on June 8, 2026. The high probability reflects seasonal patterns—early June typically brings warmer overnight lows in most U.S. regions. The current level is driven primarily by historical temperature data for this date and baseline climate conditions. Downward pressure would come from anomalously cool weather patterns or a tropical system. The contract resolves on June 8, 2026, when actual minimum temperature readings become available from the designated weather station. Until then, near-term weather forecasts (7-10 days out) and any emerging atmospheric patterns will be the main drivers of repricing.

### Key factors

- Historical daily minimum temperatures for June 8 at the measurement location typically fall in the 60-70° range; exceeding 77° would represent above-normal warmth
- Current market pricing at 75% implies roughly 3-to-1 odds, indicating baseline expectation is materially warmer than typical, not a near-certainty
- Weather forecasts from June 1-7, 2026 will provide measurable guidance; any indication of cool air mass or frontal system would pressure the contract lower
- The two-outcome structure (78° or above vs. 76-77°) leaves 17% probability mass unpriced, suggesting meaningful tail risk below 76°
- Daily minimum temperature readings are objective and verifiable at resolution; no ambiguity in contract settlement exists once the date arrives

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lowtphx
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=lowtphx

## License

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