# Will Hannah Green win the The Chevron Championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 39% across 18 contracts — refreshed 12 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lpgatour
Updated: 2026-05-03T22:05:58.922Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 39% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 36% / Polymarket 94% — 58pp spread
- 24h volume: $8K

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay | 4¢ | — | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-green-bay-win-the-2027-pro-football-champions-kalshi-kxsb-27-gb |
| Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? | 94¢ | +1pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/will-green-party-win-a-mayorship-in-the-2026-unite-polymarket-0x847e9fb7f4a6a7efc1f36957fd62c3878d062450f5febe162bdfc880361a4f7d |
| Green Party | 90¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-green-party-win-any-mayorship-as-part-of-the-kalshi-kxgreenmayor-26may07-green |
| 11+ wins | 29¢ | +1pp | $165 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-green-bay-pro-football-team-win-at-least-kalshi-kxnflwins-27gb-11 |
| Green Bay | 10¢ | — | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-green-bay-win-the-pro-football-nfc-championsh-kalshi-kxnflnfcchamp-27-gb |
| 7+ wins | 39¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-green-bay-pro-football-team-win-at-least-kalshi-kxnflwins-27gb-7 |
| 5+ wins | 47¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-green-bay-pro-football-team-win-at-least-kalshi-kxnflwins-27gb-5 |
| Hannah Einbinder | 47¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hannah-einbinder-win-comedy-supporting-actres-kalshi-kxemmycsactr-26sep14-han |
| 3+ wins | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-green-bay-pro-football-team-win-at-least-kalshi-kxnflwins-27gb-3 |
| 10+ wins | 10¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-green-bay-pro-football-team-win-at-least-kalshi-kxnflwins-27gb-10 |
| 8+ wins | 32¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-green-bay-pro-football-team-win-at-least-kalshi-kxnflwins-27gb-8 |
| 4+ wins | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-green-bay-pro-football-team-win-at-least-kalshi-kxnflwins-27gb-4 |
| 1+ wins | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-green-bay-pro-football-team-win-at-least-kalshi-kxnflwins-27gb-1 |
| 9+ wins | 22¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-green-bay-pro-football-team-win-at-least-kalshi-kxnflwins-27gb-9 |
| Green Bay | 32¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-green-bay-win-the-pro-football-nfc-north-divi-kalshi-kxnflnfcnorth-27-gb |
| 6+ wins | 44¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-green-bay-pro-football-team-win-at-least-kalshi-kxnflwins-27gb-6 |
| 2+ wins | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-green-bay-pro-football-team-win-at-least-kalshi-kxnflwins-27gb-2 |
| Green party | 10¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-green-win-the-next-uk-election-green-party-kalshi-kxukparty-29-gre |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | 50 |
| 2026-04-19 | 52 |
| 2026-04-26 | 46 |
| 2026-05-03 | 33 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? −8pp 88→80¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? +8pp 80→88¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-01 · 11+ wins +7pp 24→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-26 · Green Party +5pp 82→87¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · 11+ wins +5pp 16→21¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lpgatour
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=lpgatour

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.