# LPL 2026 Split 2 Winner

> Bilibili Gaming leads at 53%, runner-up 24% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lpl-split-2-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.203Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: Bilibili Gaming at 53%
- Runner-up: Anyone's Legend at 24%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $271

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilibili Gaming | 53¢ | −3pp | $60 | polymarket | /markets/lpl-2026-split-2-winner-bilibili-gaming-polymarket-0xcbf2e173d92a989f9abba89988417b08d37711c0e9c9ae699a64ec4a2b91d416 |
| Anyone's Legend | 24¢ | +5pp | $80 | polymarket | /markets/lpl-2026-split-2-winner-anyones-legend-polymarket-0x51b46ecb3c224e7635d1231cbffa5ff08af55b93a6d9c3ed8e9b8a21eaac77e4 |
| Top Esports | 14¢ | ±0 | $71 | polymarket | /markets/lpl-2026-split-2-winner-top-esports-polymarket-0xfb14da53691df0c2c422a309189127d4d13532c76fe2ff5d3498f0ed72a1f246 |
| JD Gaming | 12¢ | +3pp | $60 | polymarket | /markets/lpl-2026-split-2-winner-jd-gaming-polymarket-0xccef218e677cf7fea13d26e4153e53edbb504603fa54db73b1216c294bbbd93c |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Bilibili Gaming | Anyone's Legend | Top Esports |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 48 | 27 | 31 |
| 2026-05-02 | 49 | 22 | — |
| 2026-05-03 | 49 | 21 | 24 |
| 2026-05-06 | 50 | 26 | 16 |
| 2026-05-07 | 44 | — | 15 |
| 2026-05-08 | 41 | — | 15 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · JD Gaming +12pp 12→24¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Top Esports −8pp 24→16¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Top Esports −7pp 31→24¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Bilibili Gaming −6pp 50→44¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Anyone's Legend −5pp 27→22¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability indicates that market participants estimate Bilibili Gaming has a 48% chance of winning the LPL 2026 Split 2 tournament, ahead of a runner-up at 25%. The estimate reflects the team's recent performance, roster strength, and track record in competition. The probability could shift based on team performance during the season's early matches, which would reveal mechanical consistency and meta adaptation. The main catalyst is the split's opening week of matches, scheduled to begin in early May 2026, where early wins or losses would provide concrete data on team form. Trading volume suggests moderate market confidence rather than consensus, with roughly $2.5k in combined daily volume across related contracts indicating active but cautious positioning.

### Key factors

- Bilibili Gaming's 48% probability exceeds all other teams by 23 percentage points, suggesting market consensus around their superiority but not dominant certainty
- LPL 2026 Season Winner contracts show Bilibili Gaming at 51¢ while Top Esports trades at 11¢, indicating market coherence across different time horizons
- Trading volume is modest ($1-1.5k per contract on average), suggesting the market has not yet priced in information from early split matches or roster changes
- The probability reflects pre-split or very early-split conditions; performance data from week 1-2 matches would be the most immediate resolution driver
- Related LoL regional tournaments (CBLOL, LRS) show diverse probabilities (19-45¢), indicating markets differentiate between regions rather than treating all LoL competition equally

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lpl-split-2-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=lpl-split-2-winner

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