# LRN 2026 Split 1 Winner

> Fuego leads at 81%, runner-up 36% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lrn-split-1-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:43.785Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: Fuego at 81%
- Runner-up: SDM Tigres at 36%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fuego | 81¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/lrn-2026-split-1-winner-fuego-polymarket-0xfc31d389c1343700c5a65eae6f83de37a06deec8aa01c32c8de770c29beb23ca |
| SDM Tigres | 36¢ | +10pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/lrn-2026-split-1-winner-sdm-tigres-polymarket-0x77733bc921a28d483a8e3c866f3ec58898b491febec21791c2a41250b5290331 |
| G3V E-sports | 13¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/lrn-2026-split-1-winner-g3v-e-sports-polymarket-0x71285631455f12844c150b50b620b36634b0a3af801c8dcc7c16bbe2355f60de |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Fuego | SDM Tigres | G3V E-sports |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 66 | 25 | 29 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 26 | 32 |
| 2026-05-03 | — | 20 | 23 |
| 2026-05-06 | 83 | 22 | 17 |
| 2026-05-07 | 81 | 31 | 19 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | 37 | — |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Fuego +17pp 66→83¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · SDM Tigres +10pp 27→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · SDM Tigres +9pp 22→31¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · G3V E-sports −9pp 32→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · SDM Tigres −6pp 26→20¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 66% probability represents the current market estimate that a specific esports organization will win the LRN 2026 Split 1 championship. The leader commands a significant majority of trading volume, suggesting market confidence in that outcome relative to alternatives priced at 20% and lower. The price reflects accumulated bets on recent team performance, roster strength, and competitive standings heading into the playoffs. What would move this probability depends on playoff results—strong tournament performances by the leading contender would reinforce the current odds, while unexpected losses or roster issues would shift weight toward challengers. The final resolution occurs when the LRN 2026 Split 1 playoffs conclude and a champion is crowned, likely within weeks. Current trading volume concentrates on this contract and the CBLOL equivalent, indicating these are the most actively traded regional league outcomes among the available options.

### Key factors

- The leader contract maintains 66% probability with $1057 in 24-hour volume, substantially higher than runner-up alternatives at 20% and lower
- Three separate contracts on Polymarket for this outcome span regional leagues (CBLOL, LRS, and others), suggesting fragmented betting interest across related but distinct competitions
- The price curve shows a concentrated probability distribution rather than dispersed uncertainty, with the top contract capturing two-thirds of implied likelihood
- Playoff timing and bracket progression will be the primary catalyst for repricing, as tournament results eliminate teams and clarify championship likelihood
- LRN-specific team rosters and recent regular-season performance data form the informational basis underlying current market positions

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lrn-split-1-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=lrn-split-1-winner

## License

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