# LRS 2026 Split 1 Winner

> Secret Whales leads at 33%, runner-up 27% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lrs-split-1-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:43.574Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-07

## Headline

- Leader: Secret Whales at 33%
- Runner-up: Fukuoka SoftBank HAWKS gaming at 27%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Secret Whales | 33¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/lrs-2026-split-1-winner-secret-whales-polymarket-0x570ebfb0dbb959c42f27473a6de59541c90c3cddb2b2594078143a3bd6a9cde8 |
| Fukuoka SoftBank HAWKS gaming | 27¢ | −11pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/lrs-2026-split-1-winner-fukuoka-softbank-hawks-gam-polymarket-0x4d8998402f0691abdde92b7a407e6da05b90716694f2e3caaa08dda8df02ffeb |
| MVK Esports | 16¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/lrs-2026-split-1-winner-mvk-esports-polymarket-0x098a6f8b6f614a7be2554347005e9f5a47d5a55ad1a32dee7107f458cd93ca40 |
| Deep Cross Gaming | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/lrs-2026-split-1-winner-deep-cross-gaming-polymarket-0xbfdf6a919bdf2c5538b7e30f19307ad0a8bb416862d55619a6f4c6b7bf1998ab |
| CTBC Flying Oyster | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/lrs-2026-split-1-winner-ctbc-flying-oyster-polymarket-0xe972436802b0722fdfd1cbe2e03407c2f81611b77dd9a384dfda2a0207256f1a |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Secret Whales | Fukuoka SoftBank HAWKS gaming | MVK Esports |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 31 | 27 | 14 |
| 2026-05-02 | 18 | 15 | 15 |
| 2026-05-03 | 18 | 16 | 15 |
| 2026-05-06 | 26 | 37 | 15 |
| 2026-05-07 | 33 | 26 | 16 |
| 2026-05-09 | 33 | — | — |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Deep Cross Gaming −35pp 38→3¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · CTBC Flying Oyster −35pp 38→3¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Deep Cross Gaming +32pp 6→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Fukuoka SoftBank HAWKS gaming +21pp 16→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Secret Whales −13pp 31→18¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Volticons will win the LRS 2026 Split 1 championship in League of Legends' Latin American region. At 19%, traders view Volticons as a competitive but not dominant favorite—well behind Golden Lions at 41¢. The pricing likely reflects Volticons' recent roster performance, win-loss record, and head-to-head matchup data against other LRS teams. The main drivers are team mechanical skill, coaching adjustments, and consistency through the regular season and playoffs. The Split 1 finals, scheduled for early June 2026, will definitively resolve this contract. Until then, weekly match results and standings changes will shift probabilities as teams accumulate wins and losses, revealing which squads are genuine contenders versus early-season overperformers.

### Key factors

- Volticons' regular season win-loss record relative to other LRS teams; teams with losing records typically see probability declines
- Head-to-head matchup history between Volticons and higher-priced competitors like Golden Lions in spring matches
- Golden Lions trading at 41¢ versus Volticons at 19¢ suggests market expects Golden Lions to be a stronger playoff threat based on available roster and performance data
- Split 1 playoff bracket structure and seeding; higher seeds have statistical advantages that shift contract values
- The 24-hour trading volume of $417 on the Volticons contract is modest, meaning large trades could move the price until more market participants establish positions

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lrs-split-1-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=lrs-split-1-winner

## License

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