# Will Richard Wright be the Democratic nominee for Lt. Governor in Georgia

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 34% across 3 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ltgovganomd
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.041Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-19

## Headline

- Probability: 34% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $53

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nabilah Parkes | 42¢ | ±0 | $53 | kalshi | /markets/will-nabilah-parkes-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-kalshi-kxltgovganomd-26-npar |
| Josh McLaurin | 54¢ | −7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-josh-mclaurin-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-l-kalshi-kxltgovganomd-26-jcml |
| Richard Wright | 6¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-richard-wright-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-kalshi-kxltgovganomd-26-rwri |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | 44 |
| 2026-04-25 | 35 |
| 2026-05-01 | 12 |
| 2026-05-08 | 55 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Josh McLaurin −25pp 84→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Nabilah Parkes +19pp 12→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Josh McLaurin −7pp 62→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Richard Wright +5pp 1→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Josh McLaurin +3pp 59→62¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This prediction estimates a 49% chance that Richard Wright will become the Democratic nominee for Lieutenant Governor in Georgia. The probability reflects genuine uncertainty about the 2026 nomination process in a swing state where both the gubernatorial and statewide offices draw significant political attention. Factors supporting higher probability include Wright's existing political profile and establishment connections, while lower probability scenarios account for competition from other potential candidates and the unpredictability of primary elections. The nomination outcome will largely depend on candidate announcements, campaign fundraising performance, and primary voter preferences as the 2026 election cycle progresses. Major clarity should emerge as filing deadlines approach and candidate fields solidify.

### Key factors

- Candidate field composition remains uncertain—the probability could shift substantially if additional qualified Democratic candidates announce or decline to run for the Lt. Governor nomination
- Primary election rules and procedures in Georgia may affect turnout patterns and outcome, particularly regarding early voting and debate participation
- Fundraising and endorsement patterns by major Democratic figures and organizations will serve as concrete indicators of support trajectory
- Voter preference data from Georgia Democratic primary polls will directly test whether current 49% estimate aligns with actual electorate sentiment
- Timing of candidate announcements relative to filing deadlines creates information cascades that typically correlate with probability movements

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ltgovganomd
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ltgovganomd
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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