# Will Howard Lutnick leaves Commerce Secretary in before May

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 9% across 1 contract — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lutnickout
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.681Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-01

## Headline

- Probability: 9% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-howard-lutnick-leaves-commerce-secretary-in-b-kalshi-kxlutnickout-26sep01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 27 |
| 2026-06-12 | 26 |
| 2026-06-19 | 13 |
| 2026-06-25 | 9 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 35% probability indicates traders assess there is roughly a one-in-three chance that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick leaves his position before May 3, 2027. The current price reflects that Lutnick has maintained his Cabinet role for several months since the administration began, suggesting relative stability in the position. However, Cabinet turnover has historically been common in Trump administrations, and factors like policy disagreements, conflicts with other officials, or investigations could prompt early departures. The most specific uncertainty centers on whether Lutnick will depart within the coming year rather than serving a full term. Traders appear to distinguish between Lutnick leaving before June 2026 (priced at just 5 cents, indicating very low near-term odds) and the broader year-long timeframe, suggesting they believe any departure, if it occurs, is more likely later in 2026 or early 2027.

### Key factors

- Lutnick's current tenure duration and relative absence of recent public controversies involving his position
- Historical Cabinet turnover rates under Trump compared to other administrations
- Ongoing legal, regulatory, or policy developments affecting commerce policy or Lutnick's specific portfolio
- Competitive dynamics between Cabinet members and potential power struggles that could force turnover
- Market-implied distinction between imminent departure (5% for before June 1) versus extended timeframe (35% for before May 2027), suggesting traders expect stability in the near term

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/lutnickout
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=lutnickout

## License

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