# Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be below 5.0%

> 6.5% or Above leads at 21%, runner-up 19% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/m2growth
Updated: 2026-08-24T13:20:50.951Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-26

## Headline

- Leader: 6.5% or Above at 21%
- Runner-up: 5.5% to 5.9% at 19%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% or Above | 21¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-m2-money-supply-growth-for-december-2026-be-a-kalshi-kxm2growth-27jan26-t6.5 |
| 5.5% to 5.9% | 19¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-m2-money-supply-growth-for-december-2026-be-b-kalshi-kxm2growth-27jan26-b5.7 |
| 6.0% to 6.4% | 16¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-m2-money-supply-growth-for-december-2026-be-b-kalshi-kxm2growth-27jan26-b6.2 |
| Below 5.0% | 14¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-m2-money-supply-growth-for-december-2026-be-b-kalshi-kxm2growth-27jan26-t5.0 |
| 5.0% to 5.4% | 13¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-m2-money-supply-growth-for-december-2026-be-b-kalshi-kxm2growth-27jan26-b5.2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 6.5% or Above | 5.5% to 5.9% | 6.0% to 6.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | 17 | 18 | 18 |
| 2026-08-09 | 20 | — | 16 |
| 2026-08-12 | 10 | 6 | 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | 16 | 10 | 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | — | 9 | 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | — | 7 | 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | 21 | — | — |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-22 · 5.0% to 5.4% +7pp 6→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-23 · 6.5% or Above +5pp 16→21¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market is pricing a 22% probability that year-over-year M2 money-supply growth will fall below 5.0% by December 2026. The current market consensus leans toward growth between 6.0% and 6.4%, suggesting expectations for moderately expansionary monetary conditions. M2 growth depends primarily on Federal Reserve policy rates and the overall stance of monetary accommodation—lower interest rates and quantitative easing would increase growth, while rate hikes or balance sheet runoff would decrease it. The outcome will be heavily influenced by inflation and employment data reported through late 2026, along with FOMC policy decisions. The exact December figure will be released by the Federal Reserve in early January 2027, resolving all contracts simultaneously. Traders are currently assigning low probability to the below-5.0% scenario, implying expectations that the Fed will either maintain accommodative conditions or that growth will not decelerate sharply.

### Key factors

- Federal Reserve funds rate path through Q4 2026—each 25bp cut typically adds roughly 0.5-1.0pp to trailing M2 growth; current market pricing suggests limited additional easing
- Realized inflation data and labor market strength reported June through November 2026—persistent high inflation or tight employment reduces likelihood of aggressive rate cuts
- M2 velocity trends and demand for money balances; if velocity remains elevated, nominal M2 growth may compress even without tighter policy
- Cumulative monetary base expansion or contraction through balance sheet policy (QE/QT) during the second half of 2026
- Year-over-year comparison base effect—December 2025 M2 level will anchor the denominator for the year-over-year calculation released January 2027

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/m2growth
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=m2growth

## License

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