# MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner

> Dan Koh leads at 80%, runner-up 9% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ma06-democratic-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:44.022Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-15

## Headline

- Leader: Dan Koh at 80%
- Runner-up: Diann Slavit Baylis at 9%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Koh | 80¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ma-06-democratic-primary-winner-dan-koh-polymarket-0xd2481bf85502225a8cfe44cdb7156dc3d8c4e73dc3b287c3177549ceb151f29a |
| Diann Slavit Baylis | 9¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ma-06-democratic-primary-winner-diann-slavit-bayli-polymarket-0x945b5dbdda6b4258d4310ea4b27b9c63bc501092e085e698b3dcbcd6392c842d |
| Tram Nguyen | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ma-06-democratic-primary-winner-tram-nguyen-polymarket-0xcb2dcf1ce5b85f4355b423ee084785f13d34007c13c0fb55bec2a62f4e1ffde3 |
| Mariah Lancaster | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ma-06-democratic-primary-winner-mariah-lancaster-polymarket-0xf9ef7fe734da634f5cda8e06b1ba41e234fe3e199c543bf65a3a90d26831809d |
| Kevin Larivee | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ma-06-democratic-primary-winner-kevin-larivee-polymarket-0x063dc6f60512bf8d5b3d0c5b30196b71d9bf0f473309565104dd29431306f0f3 |
| Rachel Creemers | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ma-06-democratic-primary-winner-rachel-creemers-polymarket-0x228dc17acd4d8dedf849ef0660268be463c6bd34d2d6416b3fee00d6fcd177aa |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Dan Koh | Diann Slavit Baylis | Tram Nguyen |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 84 | — | 5 |
| 2026-04-11 | 82 | 2 | — |
| 2026-04-25 | 72 | 7 | 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | 82 | 9 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 8 | — |
| 2026-05-03 | 82 | 6 | 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | 81 | 9 | 4 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | 6 | — |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Rachel Creemers −8pp 10→2¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Diann Slavit Baylis +6pp 6→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Kevin Larivee −4pp 7→3¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Rachel Creemers −4pp 13→9¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Diann Slavit Baylis −3pp 12→9¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 82% probability indicates that a specific candidate in Massachusetts's 6th congressional district Democratic primary is favored to win the party nomination. The strong likelihood reflects either consolidated support from major Democratic factions, a significant polling lead, or early organizational advantages in the district. The probability could shift downward if a rival candidate gains unexpected endorsements, if polling narrows significantly, or if turnout patterns differ from current expectations. The Massachusetts state primary date will be the critical resolution point, as it will definitively determine the Democratic nominee and either confirm the frontrunner's dominance or reveal a surprise challenger surge. Between now and the primary, candidate debate performance, late campaign spending, and endorsement patterns represent the main events that could alter current market expectations substantially.

### Key factors

- The leading contract has priced 82% compared to runners-up at 6%, indicating significant market consensus behind one candidate rather than a competitive four-way race
- Polymarket contract volume of $24 traded across the four outcomes suggests moderate liquidity and pricing based on actual trading activity rather than minimal interest
- The primary election date is the single point of resolution; no intermediate polling releases or scheduled debates are specified in available data
- Current frontrunner status could erode if consolidation patterns shift or if undecided voters break toward an alternative candidate in final weeks
- Massachusetts Democratic primary rules regarding voter eligibility, delegate allocation, and winner determination will mechanically resolve the outcome once votes are counted

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ma06-democratic-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ma06-democratic-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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