# MA-08 Democratic Primary Winner

> Stephen Lynch leads at 53%, runner-up 40% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ma08-democratic-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:41.533Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-01

## Headline

- Leader: Stephen Lynch at 53%
- Runner-up: Patrick Roath at 40%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $27

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Lynch | 53¢ | +3pp | $27 | polymarket | /markets/ma-08-democratic-primary-winner-stephen-lynch-polymarket-0xf56efa5879b1ac0496b649b97793e321e65bed2aff9cfed42d9efa87a0cd7680 |
| Patrick Roath | 40¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ma-08-democratic-primary-winner-patrick-roath-polymarket-0x45a333816073d1e67a304632653f7712e41e95acab6cba7beece6150d353ff69 |
| Andrew Zylberfink | 11¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ma-08-democratic-primary-winner-andrew-zylberfink-polymarket-0xf32a82ff89d2ba27bfe21dea6f6f6d0ffecfb883f691c5f599084b6d2552b487 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Stephen Lynch | Patrick Roath | Andrew Zylberfink |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 49 | 38 | — |
| 2026-04-10 | 50 | 39 | 36 |
| 2026-04-25 | 52 | 39 | 34 |
| 2026-05-02 | 52 | 47 | 19 |
| 2026-05-08 | 47 | 38 | 10 |
| 2026-05-09 | 50 | 38 | — |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Stephen Lynch +26pp 46→72¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Stephen Lynch −14pp 61→47¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Stephen Lynch −11pp 72→61¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Patrick Roath −11pp 47→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Patrick Roath +7pp 31→38¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability indicates the market's assessment that the leading candidate in Massachusetts's 8th congressional district Democratic primary has roughly a 48% chance of winning, with a strong challenger at 41%. The moderate gap between the top two contenders reflects meaningful uncertainty about the race outcome. Movements in this probability would likely respond to campaign funding data, endorsement announcements from party figures, or polling releases. The primary election date itself represents the ultimate resolution event that will determine the actual winner and settle all contracts. Until then, shifts in candidate visibility, organizational strength, and voter sentiment in the district will drive market reassessment of these probabilities.

### Key factors

- Gap between leader (48%) and runner-up (41%) is 7 percentage points, indicating competitive race rather than clear frontrunner
- Polymarket volume across three contracts ($816 in 24-hour trading) provides moderate liquidity but limited depth for high-confidence price discovery
- Massachusetts primary election date will serve as hard resolution point for all contracts
- Candidate fundraising reports and endorsements from state/federal Democratic figures would provide concrete data to shift probabilities
- Polling data or turnout metrics specific to MA-08 district would offer measurable input for market repricing

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ma08-democratic-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ma08-democratic-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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