# Will Jamie Belsito be the Democratic nominee for MA-6

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 33% across 3 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ma6d
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:51.285Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 33% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Koh | 71¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dan-koh-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-ma-6-da-kalshi-kxma6d-26-dkoh |
| John Beccia | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-john-beccia-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-ma-kalshi-kxma6d-26-jbec |
| Tram Nguyen | 25¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tram-nguyen-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-ma-kalshi-kxma6d-26-tngu |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 23 |
| 2026-06-11 | 45 |
| 2026-06-19 | 43 |
| 2026-06-25 | 48 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-19 · Dan Koh −12pp 66→54¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Dan Koh +9pp 63→72¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Tram Nguyen +9pp 22→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Dan Koh +5pp 54→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Tram Nguyen −5pp 27→22¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Jamie Belsito will become the Democratic nominee for Massachusetts's 6th congressional district. The 81% likelihood suggests strong confidence in this outcome, though the forecast depends on several contingencies. Key drivers include whether Belsito can maintain support among progressive Democratic primary voters, the strength and viability of competing candidates, and turnout patterns in the district. Any significant shift in candidate endorsements, fundraising dynamics, or candidate withdrawals could move this probability substantially. The primary election itself will be the definitive moment of resolution, at which point the market will either confirm or contradict current expectations based on actual voter choices.

### Key factors

- Current polling and primary performance data among registered Democratic voters in MA-6, if available
- Endorsement patterns from local party officials, unions, and established Democratic figures in the district
- Candidate fundraising totals and spending intensity in the race to date
- Whether competing candidates remain active or withdraw, consolidating support behind rivals
- Historical primary turnout and demographic composition trends in MA-6 Democratic primaries

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ma6d
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ma6d
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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