# Will lowest priced of the any MacBook model on Apple.com be below $450 on November 27th, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET

> below $700 leads at 94%, runner-up 60% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/macbookprice
Updated: 2026-09-21T23:20:50.726Z
Category: technology
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-25

## Headline

- Leader: below $700 at 94%
- Runner-up: below $750 at 60%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| below $700 | 94¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lowest-priced-of-the-any-macbook-model-on-app-kalshi-kxmacbookprice-26-700 |
| below $750 | 60¢ | −42pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lowest-priced-of-the-any-macbook-model-on-app-kalshi-kxmacbookprice-26-750 |
| below $550 | 9¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lowest-priced-of-the-any-macbook-model-on-app-kalshi-kxmacbookprice-26-550 |
| below $450 | 8¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lowest-priced-of-the-any-macbook-model-on-app-kalshi-kxmacbookprice-26-450 |
| below $500 | 6¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lowest-priced-of-the-any-macbook-model-on-app-kalshi-kxmacbookprice-26-500 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | below $700 | below $750 | below $550 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 78 | 86 | — |
| 2026-08-27 | 79 | 86 | 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | 85 | 86 | — |
| 2026-09-07 | 88 | — | — |
| 2026-09-08 | 86 | — | 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | 74 | 28 | 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | 69 | 18 | — |
| 2026-09-18 | 94 | 52 | — |
| 2026-09-19 | 95 | — | — |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-17 · below $750 +76pp 18→94¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · below $750 −42pp 94→52¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · below $700 +13pp 81→94¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · below $700 +12pp 69→81¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This question asks whether Apple's lowest-priced MacBook will cost less than $450 when checked on November 27, 2026. Currently priced at 45%, the market suggests this is unlikely but not ruled out. Apple's entry-level MacBook Air typically starts around $1,099, though periodic discounts, education pricing, or refurbished models sometimes reach lower levels. The outcome depends on whether Apple introduces a new budget MacBook model, whether Black Friday promotions (occurring around that date) create significant discounts, or whether the company repositions its product lineup. The main uncertainties are Apple's strategic pricing decisions over the next five months and the depth of holiday season discounting in late November.

### Key factors

- Apple's current entry-level MacBook Air starts at $1,099; reaching below $450 would require either a new budget model release or unprecedented discounting
- Black Friday and Cyber Monday occur immediately before the November 27 resolution date, making holiday promotions the most likely mechanism for achieving sub-$450 pricing
- Historical precedent shows Apple rarely discounts MacBooks below 20-25% of retail price, making sub-$450 pricing structurally difficult unless a new lower-tier model launches
- Refurbished and education pricing channels exist but are typically not listed as the lowest price on Apple.com's primary storefront
- Any new MacBook announcement or product lineup refresh between now and November 2026 would directly impact pricing outcomes

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/macbookprice
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=macbookprice

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.