# Will María Corina Machado visit Venezuela before Jan 1, 2027

> Before Oct 1, 2026 leads at 10%, runner-up 5% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 20 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/machadovenezuela
Updated: 2026-08-10T04:20:50.843Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Oct 1, 2026 at 10%
- Runner-up: Before Jan 1, 2027 at 5%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $631

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 10¢ | −2pp | $237 | kalshi | /markets/will-mara-corina-machado-visit-venezuela-before-oc-kalshi-kxmachadovenezuela-26jun29-oct01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 5¢ | −18pp | $394 | kalshi | /markets/will-mara-corina-machado-visit-venezuela-before-ja-kalshi-kxmachadovenezuela-26jun29-jan01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Oct 1, 2026 | Before Jan 1, 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | — | 60 |
| 2026-07-12 | 43 | 60 |
| 2026-07-27 | 35 | 51 |
| 2026-08-03 | 15 | 47 |
| 2026-08-10 | 11 | 5 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-10 · Before Jan 1, 2027 −18pp 23→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-09 · Before Jan 1, 2027 −15pp 38→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-03 · Before Oct 1, 2026 +4pp 11→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-06 · Before Jan 1, 2027 −3pp 44→41¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing a 53% chance that María Corina Machado will physically return to Venezuela by the end of 2026, with only 25% probability for a visit before August 1. Machado, a prominent Venezuelan opposition figure, has faced significant political and legal obstacles to returning to her home country. The probability reflects ongoing uncertainty about whether security conditions, diplomatic negotiations, or political developments would enable or prevent her entry before year-end. Near-term catalysts include announced travel plans, changes in Venezuela's government stance toward opposition figures, or shifts in regional political dynamics. Longer timeframes show lower probability, suggesting market participants expect any return to occur relatively soon or not at all through 2026.

### Key factors

- Machado's current location and stated travel plans or timeline for Venezuela return
- Venezuelan government's position on allowing opposition figures to enter; any changes in detention, arrest warrant, or travel ban policies
- Timing of scheduled political events or negotiations in Venezuela that might coincide with her return
- Security and safety conditions for high-profile opposition members attempting to enter Venezuela
- Outcome of related Kalshi contracts showing very low probability (25%) for August 1 visit, suggesting market expects any trip to occur in final months of 2026 or not at all

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/machadovenezuela
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=machadovenezuela

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.