# Will Iga Swiatek win the WTA Madrid Open

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 21% across 16 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/madwomen
Updated: 2026-05-03T20:05:53.643Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 21% (liquidity-weighted across 16 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $15K

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| America | 11¢ | +3pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-america-win-the-liga-mx-clausura-america-kalshi-kxligamx-26cla-ame |
| Michigan | 12¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-michigan-win-the-college-basketball-national-kalshi-kxmarmad-27-mich |
| Iga Swiatek | 16¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-iga-swiatek-win-the-french-open-iga-swiatek-kalshi-kxfowomen-26-swi |
| Atlas | 8¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-atlas-win-the-liga-mx-clausura-atlas-kalshi-kxligamx-26cla-atl |
| Tigres | 22¢ | +7pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-tigres-win-the-liga-mx-clausura-tigres-kalshi-kxligamx-26cla-tig |
| Pumas UNAM | 11¢ | −11pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-pumas-unam-win-the-liga-mx-clausura-pumas-una-kalshi-kxligamx-26cla-pum |
| Cruz Azul | 10¢ | −6pp | $881 | kalshi | /markets/will-cruz-azul-win-the-liga-mx-clausura-cruz-azul-kalshi-kxligamx-26cla-cra |
| Toluca | 12¢ | ±0 | $800 | kalshi | /markets/will-toluca-win-the-liga-mx-clausura-toluca-kalshi-kxligamx-26cla-tol |
| Michigan St. | 4¢ | +1pp | $122 | kalshi | /markets/will-michigan-st-win-the-college-basketball-nation-kalshi-kxmarmad-27-msu |
| Republican party | 23¢ | — | $103 | kalshi | /markets/will-republicans-win-the-senate-race-in-michigan-r-kalshi-senatemi-26-r |
| Democratic party | 77¢ | −1pp | $40 | kalshi | /markets/will-democratics-win-the-senate-race-in-michigan-d-kalshi-senatemi-26-d |
| James Talarico in Texas, Raja Krishnamoorthi in Illinois, Josh Turek in Iowa, Graham Platner in Maine, Mallory McMorrow in Michigan, and Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota?: Yes | 13¢ | +1pp | $18 | kalshi | /markets/will-at-least-5-of-the-following-6-democratic-cand-kalshi-kxdemsenateprimarycombo-26nov03 |
| Republican party | 13¢ | −1pp | $14 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-republican-party-win-the-governorship-in-kalshi-govpartymi-26-r |
| Mike Duggan | 22¢ | ±0 | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-mike-duggan-party-win-the-governorship-in-kalshi-govpartymi-26-md |
| Yes | 64¢ | ±0 | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-the-2026-senate-elections-in-ge-kalshi-kxdemcorefoursenatesweep-26nov03 |
| Western Michigan | 17¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-western-michigan-win-the-college-football-mid-kalshi-kxncaafmac-26-wmu |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 20 |
| 2026-04-19 | 10 |
| 2026-04-26 | 17 |
| 2026-05-03 | 20 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Pumas UNAM −11pp 20→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Toluca +11pp 5→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Cruz Azul −10pp 20→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · America +8pp 4→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Tigres +8pp 6→14¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/madwomen
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=madwomen

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.