# Will MAGA Inc.'s FEC-reported total disbursements value be above 100000000 during calendar year 2026

> Above 15 million dollars leads at 93%, runner-up 93% across 11 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 30 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/magaincspend
Updated: 2026-09-07T12:20:54.873Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above 15 million dollars at 93%
- Runner-up: Above 20 million dollars at 93%
- Outcomes: 11 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 15 million dollars | 93¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-maga-incs-fec-reported-total-disbursements-va-kalshi-kxmagaincspend-26dec31-a15000000 |
| Above 20 million dollars | 93¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-maga-incs-fec-reported-total-disbursements-va-kalshi-kxmagaincspend-26dec31-a20000000 |
| Above 25 million dollars | 90¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-maga-incs-fec-reported-total-disbursements-va-kalshi-kxmagaincspend-26dec31-a25000000 |
| Above 30 million dollars | 86¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-maga-incs-fec-reported-total-disbursements-va-kalshi-kxmagaincspend-26dec31-a30000000 |
| Above 40 million dollars | 81¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-maga-incs-fec-reported-total-disbursements-va-kalshi-kxmagaincspend-26dec31-a40000000 |
| Above 50 million dollars | 76¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-maga-incs-fec-reported-total-disbursements-va-kalshi-kxmagaincspend-26dec31-a50000000 |
| Above 75 million dollars | 71¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-maga-incs-fec-reported-total-disbursements-va-kalshi-kxmagaincspend-26dec31-a75000000 |
| Above 100 million dollars | 67¢ | ±0 | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-maga-incs-fec-reported-total-disbursements-va-kalshi-kxmagaincspend-26dec31-a100000000 |
| Above 150 million dollars | 45¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-maga-incs-fec-reported-total-disbursements-va-kalshi-kxmagaincspend-26dec31-a150000000 |
| Above 200 million dollars | 34¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-maga-incs-fec-reported-total-disbursements-va-kalshi-kxmagaincspend-26dec31-a200000000 |
| Above 300 million dollars | 18¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-maga-incs-fec-reported-total-disbursements-va-kalshi-kxmagaincspend-26dec31-a300000000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 15 million dollars | Above 20 million dollars | Above 25 million dollars |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | — | — | 90 |
| 2026-09-02 | — | — | 91 |
| 2026-09-03 | — | — | 92 |
| 2026-09-06 | 94 | 94 | 91 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-03 · Above 150 million dollars −5pp 46→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-04 · Above 200 million dollars +5pp 28→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-03 · Above 200 million dollars −4pp 32→28¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This prediction estimates a 96% probability that MAGA Inc.'s total FEC-reported disbursements will exceed $100 million during 2026. The organization's spending level depends primarily on the intensity of political activity throughout the year and the specific campaigns or initiatives it funds. The probability reflects market confidence in substantial spending, though the exact threshold remains uncertain. Key catalysts include FEC quarterly filings, which provide official disbursement data throughout the year, and major political events that drive funding decisions. The market shows meaningful confidence gaps at higher thresholds: spending above $150 million trades at 48%, while $200 million sits at 30%, suggesting traders view $100 million as reasonably likely but further escalation as less certain. Year-to-date spending patterns and announced organizational priorities will be critical indicators for resolution.

### Key factors

- FEC quarterly filings scheduled for 2026 will provide official disbursement totals, directly confirming or contradicting spending projections
- MAGA Inc.'s stated priorities and announced campaign activities in late 2025 and early 2026 will indicate expected spending levels
- The $100 million threshold compared to the organization's historical 2024-2025 spending patterns provides a baseline for assessing likelihood
- Market pricing shows declining probabilities at $150M (48%) and $200M (30%), indicating consensus that $100M is achievable but higher levels less probable
- Major political events or changes in organizational leadership during 2026 could materially accelerate or reduce anticipated disbursements

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/magaincspend
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=magaincspend
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

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