# MagicBlock FDV above ___ one day after launch — $10M

> $10M leads at 94%, runner-up 94% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/magicblock-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.046Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: $10M at 94%
- Runner-up: $20M at 94%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $47

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10M | 94¢ | +28pp | $47 | polymarket | /markets/magicblock-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-10m-polymarket-0xeece930c79ba2482bf556ec962d3dfab4ea6e0ff096066adadea3a35777ff50e |
| $20M | 94¢ | +11pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/magicblock-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-20m-polymarket-0x8ebc34636c7d3c3b4799c19ce18c25c664a85558512c0ddb15ab4b93dcde2e4d |
| $40M | 87¢ | +16pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/magicblock-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-40m-polymarket-0xd8430f25b6a3e9d9afc2fb011c577779e646385849ab4251c5ac5f8ae1ef88b9 |
| $100M | 85¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/magicblock-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-100m-polymarket-0x52a2462abb6b679a4b7fb438bfb65236c16171c60067e84d64679def013c65c8 |
| $60M | 79¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/magicblock-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-60m-polymarket-0x4f622fe67a1a2c9bbda12d979b49a95544dd7edf940038aafe1e69cc1b608518 |
| $200M | 48¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/magicblock-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-200m-polymarket-0x7708b39b2be7d54a3b36e331a4b4198f2713956436fbd175aea0a764aa01f8cc |
| $300M | 13¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/magicblock-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-300m-polymarket-0x558dcbab0a17d413bdcb0ec41412aceff53527d7b99cd85abc7c8a0dcbbbea5b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | $10M | $20M | $40M |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 80 | 65 | 63 |
| 2026-04-25 | 58 | 49 | 49 |
| 2026-05-02 | 66 | 59 | 53 |
| 2026-05-03 | — | 70 | 64 |
| 2026-05-06 | 94 | — | 80 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · $100M +33pp 54→87¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $10M +28pp 66→94¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $60M +22pp 59→81¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $200M +22pp 29→51¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · $40M +16pp 37→53¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract predicts whether MagicBlock will achieve a fully diluted valuation above $10 million within one day of its launch. The current 78% probability reflects market confidence in this threshold being reached, though substantial disagreement exists among traders (with runner-up odds at 70%). The valuation outcome depends primarily on launch timing and initial market reception, including developer adoption signals and comparison to peer token launches. Key catalysts include the announced launch date and early trading volume patterns that establish price discovery. Market participants are also monitoring competing projects in similar categories, which show varying confidence levels across different valuation thresholds—from $50M floors priced at 94 cents to $1B milestones at just 17 cents, suggesting probability varies significantly with scale assumptions.

### Key factors

- MagicBlock's launch date remains unconfirmed; any delay or acceleration would materially affect the probability timeline
- Early trading volume and exchange listings on day one will directly determine if sufficient liquidity exists to establish a $10M+ FDV
- Comparable projects show wide valuation ranges at launch; peer performance in recent weeks could shift baseline expectations
- Developer documentation quality and ecosystem readiness at launch influence initial adoption metrics that drive valuation
- Broader market conditions on launch day, including crypto market sentiment and competing token events, affect capital allocation pressure

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/magicblock-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=magicblock-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.