# Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...

> Closed. Last odds frozen 7 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mahmoud-abbas-out-as-palestinian-president
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: politics
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: December 31 at 29%
- Runner-up: June 30 at 4%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 29¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mahmoud-abbas-out-as-palestinian-president-by-dece-polymarket-0xddeb88745cb5ad8c67dd08d9fdf322c316ae5f36fdd21b89ff3ec090b6fa1fec |
| June 30 | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mahmoud-abbas-out-as-palestinian-president-by-june-polymarket-0x6a5a2f0dee907cdb831d2f697674cd6827ab0cafdab130615b8ec656b62ce51a |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | December 31 | June 30 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 30 | 7 |
| 2026-06-12 | 31 | 20 |
| 2026-06-17 | 29 | 5 |
| 2026-06-18 | 30 | — |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market estimates a 56% probability that Mahmoud Abbas will no longer serve as Palestinian President by an unspecified date. Abbas, who has led the Palestinian Authority since 2005, faces ongoing health concerns and political pressures from rival factions including Hamas. Market participants appear to be pricing in the possibility of succession or forced transition, though Abbas has repeatedly resisted calls for his resignation. The outcome hinges on Abbas's health trajectory, internal Palestinian political dynamics, and whether external actors attempt to force leadership changes. Key resolution events would include any official announcement of resignation, death, incapacity, or successful coup by rival Palestinian groups. Compared to other political leadership markets, this probability reflects moderate uncertainty about near-term Palestinian governance changes.

### Key factors

- Abbas is 88 years old with a documented history of health complications that have required hospitalization
- Hamas and other Palestinian factions have periodically called for Abbas's removal and control different territorial areas within Palestinian governance
- The Palestinian Authority faces institutional fragmentation and Abbas has limited mechanisms to enforce succession or prevent forced transition
- No scheduled elections or formal transition mechanisms are currently set, meaning any change would likely occur through unilateral action rather than democratic process
- International recognition and legitimacy of Palestinian leadership depends significantly on which faction or individual assumes control

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mahmoud-abbas-out-as-palestinian-president
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mahmoud-abbas-out-as-palestinian-president

## License

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