# Maine Senate Election Winner

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/maine-senate-election-winner
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Democrat at 64%
- Runner-up: Republican at 37%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $597

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | 64¢ | −2pp | $503 | polymarket | /markets/maine-senate-election-winner-democrat-polymarket-0x66bbf6d55e0296278858b3147689f3df9259374f158f9f028b608baa322a639c |
| Republican | 37¢ | ±0 | $94 | polymarket | /markets/maine-senate-election-winner-republican-polymarket-0x2c00cb09722a0f0501c5e49131b898ed57bb5c075db4dc2bcbc14908f45b8c48 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Democrat | Republican |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | 77 | 24 |
| 2026-06-07 | 61 | 40 |
| 2026-06-16 | 66 | 36 |
| 2026-06-17 | 64 | 37 |
| 2026-06-18 | — | 37 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

Markets are currently pricing the Democratic candidate as a 72% favorite to win Maine's 2026 Senate seat, implying roughly a 3-to-1 odds advantage over the Republican challenger. This reflects Maine's recent electoral lean—the state has voted Democratic in presidential races since 2004 and elected a Democratic governor in 2022. The probability could shift substantially based on candidate performance, fundraising gaps, or demographic turnout patterns in the lead-up to November 2026. The general election on November 3, 2026, will ultimately resolve this outcome. Meaningful movement might occur following candidate announcements, primary results if contested, or major campaign events. The higher trading volume on the Republican contract ($17,426 in 24-hour volume versus $6,330 for Democrats) suggests active hedging or skepticism about the current Democratic lean among some traders.

### Key factors

- Maine has voted Democratic in presidential elections consistently since 2004, establishing a structural Democratic advantage in statewide races
- Republican contract volume is 2.75x higher than Democratic contract volume despite lower Republican pricing, indicating potential disagreement between price and trading interest
- The Democrat-Republican price differential (42 cents) implies a significant but not overwhelming advantage, leaving material room for the underdog candidate to gain ground
- Incumbent status, candidate quality, and campaign fundraising disparities remain unspecified variables that typically drive Senate race probabilities
- No scheduled primary elections or key campaign milestones are evident, suggesting current pricing reflects baseline structural conditions rather than recent campaign developments

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/maine-senate-election-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=maine-senate-election-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.