# Will Restore Britain win the 2026 Makerfield by-election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 34% across 3 contracts — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/makerfieldby
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:11.383Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 34% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $8K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Restore Britain | 4¢ | −1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-restore-britain-win-the-2026-makerfield-by-el-kalshi-kxmakerfieldby-27jan01-res |
| Labour | 76¢ | +2pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-labour-win-the-2026-makerfield-by-election-la-kalshi-kxmakerfieldby-27jan01-lab |
| Reform UK | 21¢ | −4pp | $926 | kalshi | /markets/will-reform-uk-win-the-2026-makerfield-by-election-kalshi-kxmakerfieldby-27jan01-ref |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 47 |
| 2026-05-21 | 34 |
| 2026-05-28 | 48 |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-24 · Reform UK +7pp 25→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-22 · Reform UK −6pp 30→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-25 · Reform UK −5pp 32→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-24 · Labour −4pp 68→64¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Labour +4pp 68→72¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/makerfieldby
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=makerfieldby
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.