# Will the margin of victory for Andy Burnham in the 2026 Makerfield by-election be between 3% and 6%

> Andy Burnham, 3-6% leads at 17%, runner-up 15% across 10 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/makerfieldmov
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:08.399Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-06-18

## Headline

- Leader: Andy Burnham, 3-6% at 17%
- Runner-up: Andy Burnham, 0-3% at 15%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $7K

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Burnham, 3-6% | 17¢ | +4pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-andy-burnham-in-the-kalshi-kxmakerfieldmov-makerfieldby27jan01-abur-p4 |
| Andy Burnham, 0-3% | 15¢ | +3pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-andy-burnham-in-the-kalshi-kxmakerfieldmov-makerfieldby27jan01-abur-p1 |
| Andy Burnham, 6-9% | 11¢ | +1pp | $140 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-andy-burnham-in-the-kalshi-kxmakerfieldmov-makerfieldby27jan01-abur-p7 |
| Robert Kenyon, 0-3% | 9¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-robert-kenyon-in-th-kalshi-kxmakerfieldmov-makerfieldby27jan01-rken-p1 |
| Robert Kenyon, 3-6% | 8¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-robert-kenyon-in-th-kalshi-kxmakerfieldmov-makerfieldby27jan01-rken-p4 |
| Robert Kenyon, ≥9% | 7¢ | — | $201 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-robert-kenyon-in-th-kalshi-kxmakerfieldmov-makerfieldby27jan01-rken-p54 |
| Andy Burnham, 9-12% | 7¢ | +1pp | $136 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-andy-burnham-in-the-kalshi-kxmakerfieldmov-makerfieldby27jan01-abur-p10 |
| Robert Kenyon, 6-9% | 6¢ | −4pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-robert-kenyon-in-th-kalshi-kxmakerfieldmov-makerfieldby27jan01-rken-p7 |
| Andy Burnham, ≥15% | 5¢ | −3pp | $407 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-andy-burnham-in-the-kalshi-kxmakerfieldmov-makerfieldby27jan01-abur-p57 |
| Andy Burnham, 12-15% | 4¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-andy-burnham-in-the-kalshi-kxmakerfieldmov-makerfieldby27jan01-abur-p13 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Andy Burnham, 3-6% | Andy Burnham, 0-3% | Andy Burnham, 6-9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | 11 | 12 | 11 |
| 2026-05-27 | 11 | — | 12 |
| 2026-05-28 | 15 | 15 | — |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-28 · Andy Burnham, 3-6% +4pp 11→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Robert Kenyon, 3-6% −4pp 12→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Robert Kenyon, 6-9% −4pp 12→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Andy Burnham, 0-3% +3pp 12→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Andy Burnham, ≥15% −3pp 7→4¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract prices the likelihood that Andy Burnham will win the Makerfield by-election with a margin between 3% and 6%. The 13% probability reflects modest market conviction in this specific outcome, with traders currently favoring narrower margins (0–3%) at 13% and wider ones (6–9%) at 16%. The Burnham campaign's strength in the region and the fragmentation of opposition support are key variables; a tighter race could push this probability higher, while decisive polling showing larger or smaller margins would shift weight to adjacent outcomes. The by-election result itself will resolve this contract definitively. Until then, pre-election polling trends, campaign spending, and turnout estimates shape market expectations. The distributed probabilities across margin bands suggest genuine uncertainty about whether Burnham wins by a comfortable or decisive margin.

### Key factors

- Pre-election polling showing Burnham's lead between 3–6 percentage points would directly support this outcome; published polls deviating significantly in either direction would reduce its probability
- Turnout patterns in Makerfield relative to recent elections affect margin realization, since lower opposition turnout could widen Burnham's margin beyond 6%
- Market pricing shows a cumulative ~27% probability for Burnham margins of 6% or wider, indicating traders expect a stronger performance; this outcome at 13% is thus relatively underweighted
- Campaign momentum and late-stage endorsements or gaffes in the final weeks before polling day could shift vote share and push actual margins into or out of this band
- Historical by-election results in similar constituencies provide baseline expectations; significant deviation from recent Makerfield voting patterns would alter the probability substantially

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/makerfieldmov
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=makerfieldmov
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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