# Makina FDV above ___ one day after launch — $100M

> $80M leads at 19%, runner-up 9% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/makina-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.073Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: $80M at 19%
- Runner-up: $100M at 9%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $80M | 19¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/makina-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-80m-polymarket-0xa2875a4687e1eb79e61d281e02d4b818265d0f1c8e33709ebe9bc564b7aef889 |
| $100M | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/makina-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-100m-polymarket-0x91edbbe0e07534453f7fc775dbe25252191d6f24d06d5739b8f763ac1eeed958 |
| $200M | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/makina-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-200m-polymarket-0x8f4e3d36b06f9135a9bbcf17d678e6496a300413cc49e250cde8ee3d8b607250 |
| $300M | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/makina-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-300m-polymarket-0x666f702dfacc1139405b7c17f4aa542cd6bf50a169075da9ae7efb85298d85a6 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | $80M | $100M | $200M |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 12 | 10 | — |
| 2026-04-11 | 10 | — | 6 |
| 2026-04-23 | 12 | 9 | 5 |
| 2026-04-25 | — | 9 | 6 |
| 2026-05-02 | 19 | 9 | 6 |
| 2026-05-08 | 22 | 9 | 7 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · $300M −19pp 23→4¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $80M +4pp 18→22¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract estimates an 18% probability that Makina's fully diluted valuation reaches at least $100 million within one day of its token launch. The low probability reflects skepticism about achieving this valuation threshold in such a compressed timeframe, though related contracts show more confidence in higher valuations ($500M+) and lower thresholds ($50M) depending on the project. The outcome depends on launch momentum, initial trading volume, and market conditions on day one. Resolution occurs automatically when the token launches and trading data becomes available to calculate FDV. Discrepancies between this contract and related ones suggest market participants are pricing in meaningful uncertainty about how quickly initial valuations stabilize and whether early trading activity will sustain or dissipate.

### Key factors

- Launch date and time remain uncertain; resolution depends entirely on when Makina's token actually becomes tradeable on major exchanges
- Related contracts show the market assigns 44-89% probability to lower FDV thresholds ($50-500M) on day one, creating internal consistency to test
- Trading volume and initial buy pressure on launch day will primarily determine FDV calculation; extreme volatility in hour-one pricing creates measurement ambiguity
- Comparable token launches show highly variable day-one valuations; anchoring on $100M specifically suggests this threshold sits near the 15-20th percentile of historical outcomes
- Contract liquidity at $4,508 in 24h volume is modest relative to related markets, indicating limited consensus and potential for repricing if new information emerges

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/makina-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=makina-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.