# Will Claire Valdez be victorious in the NY-07 Democratic primary AND Brad Lander be victorious in the NY-10 Democratic primary AND Darializa Avila Chevalier be defeated in the NY-13 Democratic primary for Sep 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 18 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mamdaniendorse
Updated: 2026-06-25T01:20:51.401Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-10-31

## Headline

- Leader: Valdez wins, Lander wins, Chevalier wins at 69%
- Runner-up: Valdez wins, Lander wins, Chevalier loses at 15%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $44K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valdez wins, Lander wins, Chevalier wins | 69¢ | +40pp | $23K | kalshi | /markets/will-claire-valdez-be-victorious-in-the-ny-07-demo-kalshi-kxmamdaniendorse-26sep-www |
| Valdez wins, Lander wins, Chevalier loses | 15¢ | −18pp | $22K | kalshi | /markets/will-claire-valdez-be-victorious-in-the-ny-07-demo-kalshi-kxmamdaniendorse-26sep-wwl |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Valdez wins, Lander wins, Chevalier wins | Valdez wins, Lander wins, Chevalier loses |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | 38 | 28 |
| 2026-06-18 | 49 | 29 |
| 2026-06-24 | 66 | 43 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Valdez wins, Lander wins, Chevalier wins +40pp 26→66¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Valdez wins, Lander wins, Chevalier wins −19pp 42→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Valdez wins, Lander wins, Chevalier loses −18pp 61→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Valdez wins, Lander wins, Chevalier loses +14pp 47→61¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Valdez wins, Lander wins, Chevalier loses +11pp 29→40¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that Claire Valdez wins the NY-07 Democratic primary, Brad Lander wins the NY-10 Democratic primary, and Darializa Avila Chevalier loses the NY-13 Democratic primary in September 2026. The 40% probability suggests moderate confidence in this specific outcome combination, driven by assumptions about candidate viability and district dynamics in these three New York races. The main variables affecting this probability are each candidate's current polling position, endorsement patterns, fundraising strength, and voter sentiment in their respective districts. The September 2026 primaries will directly resolve these races, with earlier indicators such as campaign spending reports and any public polling updates likely to shift market expectations beforehand. Since this is a three-outcome conjunction, the probability depends on all three individual races moving in the specified directions simultaneously—a more restrictive condition than any single race outcome alone.

### Key factors

- Claire Valdez's current standing and momentum relative to other NY-07 Democratic primary candidates
- Brad Lander's visibility, fundraising, and endorsements in NY-10 compared to competing Democratic candidates
- Darializa Avila Chevalier's vulnerability to primary challenge in NY-13 and whether an opponent with sufficient resources emerges
- The concentration of this outcome's probability on Valdez winning and Lander winning, suggesting these two are treated as more likely than other combinations
- Campaign finance disclosures and any public polling data released between June and September 2026 as leading indicators of shift

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mamdaniendorse
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mamdaniendorse
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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