# Will the percentage of New York City respondents who say they have a favorable opinion of Zohran Mamdani in Siena University’s poll be at least 52 in the first such poll released after July 28, 2026

> At least 56% leads at 80%, runner-up 70% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 21 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mamdanipoll
Updated: 2026-09-24T09:20:49.656Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: At least 56% at 80%
- Runner-up: At least 58% at 70%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $600

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 56% | 80¢ | −7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-percentage-of-new-york-city-respondents-w-kalshi-kxmamdanipoll-26aug13-al56 |
| At least 58% | 70¢ | −8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-percentage-of-new-york-city-respondents-w-kalshi-kxmamdanipoll-26aug13-al58 |
| At least 62% | 52¢ | — | $400 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-percentage-of-new-york-city-respondents-w-kalshi-kxmamdanipoll-26aug13-al62 |
| At least 64% | 48¢ | ±0 | $200 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-percentage-of-new-york-city-respondents-w-kalshi-kxmamdanipoll-26aug13-al64 |
| At least 66% | 41¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-percentage-of-new-york-city-respondents-w-kalshi-kxmamdanipoll-26aug13-al66 |
| At least 60% | 30¢ | −40pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-percentage-of-new-york-city-respondents-w-kalshi-kxmamdanipoll-26aug13-al60 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | At least 56% | At least 58% | At least 62% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | 88 | — | — |
| 2026-08-27 | 88 | — | — |
| 2026-09-01 | 88 | 79 | 61 |
| 2026-09-23 | 81 | 71 | — |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-23 · At least 60% −40pp 70→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-23 · At least 58% −8pp 79→71¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-23 · At least 56% −7pp 88→81¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · At least 66% −7pp 41→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · At least 66% +7pp 34→41¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects whether Zohran Mamdani will have at least 52% favorable opinion among New York City respondents in Siena University's next poll after July 28, 2026. Mamdani, a New York State Assemblymember from Brooklyn, has a political base in one of the state's most liberal districts, which supports relatively high baseline favorability in NYC polling. The 93% probability indicates market confidence he'll exceed the 52% threshold, though the steep price drop to 13% for 64% favorability suggests significant uncertainty about his support ceiling. The main drivers are Mamdani's current standing in recent NYC-specific polling, any major political developments affecting his profile, and the specific methodology Siena University applies to its next survey. Resolution depends entirely on when Siena releases its next poll containing NYC respondent breakdowns and favorable opinion metrics.

### Key factors

- Mamdani's previous favorable ratings in NYC-specific polling data from recent months
- Whether the next Siena poll is released in 2026 or later, and the time lag between today and that release
- Political events between now and the poll's release that could shift his favorability trajectory
- The size and composition of the NYC subsample in Siena's poll, which affects statistical reliability of the favorability measure
- Whether 'favorable opinion' is measured on a standard approve/disapprove scale or a different favorability framework

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mamdanipoll
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mamdanipoll

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.