# Will Conservative Party finish 2nd in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/manchester2nd
Updated: 2026-08-02T13:20:51.885Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-07-30

## Headline

- Probability: 4% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $188

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Party | 5¢ | +4pp | $188 | kalshi | /markets/will-green-party-finish-2nd-in-the-2026-greater-ma-kalshi-kxmanchester2nd-manchestermayor26jul30-2-gre |
| Conservative Party | 4¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-conservative-party-finish-2nd-in-the-2026-gre-kalshi-kxmanchester2nd-manchestermayor26jul30-2-con |
| Labour Party | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-labour-party-finish-2nd-in-the-2026-greater-m-kalshi-kxmanchester2nd-manchestermayor26jul30-2-lab |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | 17 |
| 2026-07-19 | 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | 5 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-31 · Green Party +4pp 1→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-30 · Green Party −3pp 4→1¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-28 · Conservative Party +3pp 1→4¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that the Conservative Party will finish in second place in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election. The 20% probability reflects relatively weak Conservative positioning in Greater Manchester, a region where Labour has held significant electoral advantage in recent years. The metric depends primarily on vote-splitting dynamics among opposition parties and turnout patterns. Reform UK currently shows the highest second-place probability at 56%, while the Green Party is priced at 34%, suggesting market participants expect the second position will be contested among these three parties rather than Conservative candidates. The election outcome will be determined once voting concludes and results are officially announced, at which point the second-place finisher will be definitively established.

### Key factors

- Conservative Party's recent performance in Greater Manchester local elections compared to national and regional trends
- Vote-splitting patterns among Reform UK, Greens, and Conservative candidates if they campaign simultaneously in the mayoral race
- Whether a single opposition candidate emerges as the main challenger or if support fragments across multiple non-Labour candidates
- Turnout rates in Greater Manchester during 2026, which historically favor different party bases at different participation levels
- Confirmed candidate quality and campaign resources for Conservative, Reform UK, and Green Party candidates competing for the second-place position

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/manchester2nd
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=manchester2nd
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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