# Will Conservative win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 32% across 3 contracts — refreshed 49 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/manchestermayor
Updated: 2026-06-25T21:20:49.539Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-07-30

## Headline

- Probability: 32% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 5¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-reform-uk-win-the-2026-greater-manchester-may-kalshi-kxmanchestermayor-26jul30-ref |
| Labour | 86¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-labour-win-the-2026-greater-manchester-mayora-kalshi-kxmanchestermayor-26jul30-lab |
| Green | 5¢ | ±0 | $106 | kalshi | /markets/will-green-win-the-2026-greater-manchester-mayoral-kalshi-kxmanchestermayor-26jul30-gre |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | 21 |
| 2026-06-23 | 31 |
| 2026-06-24 | 46 |
| 2026-06-25 | 46 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · Labour +32pp 50→82¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Labour +4pp 82→86¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Reform UK −3pp 8→5¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the estimated chance that the Conservative Party will win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election, currently priced at 20 percent. The market suggests Labour holds a commanding position at 80 percent, while Greens (6 percent) and Reform UK (10 percent) occupy distant second positions. Conservative's low probability reflects both traditional voting patterns in Greater Manchester, where Labour has dominated recent mayoral contests, and the current political environment. The main factors driving this assessment include regional demographic composition, recent polling data for mayoral candidates, and performance in prior local contests. The election itself will occur when the term of the sitting mayor concludes, likely in May 2027, providing the definitive resolution point for this market.

### Key factors

- Labour's historical dominance in Greater Manchester mayoral races and the party's current 80-cent contract pricing suggests entrenched incumbent advantage
- Conservative candidate selection and campaign strategy remain unannounced; candidate profile and local recognition will materially affect their viability
- Recent national polling trends and regional party performance in prior local elections provide evidence for relative competitiveness across parties
- Reform UK's surprisingly high 10-cent contract pricing indicates potential vote-splitting that could affect Conservative's ceiling in a multi-way race
- The final resolution depends on actual votes cast in the May 2027 election, making all current prices interim estimates subject to campaign developments

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/manchestermayor
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=manchestermayor
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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