# Will Total Construction Spending

> Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $130 billion?: Above $130 billion leads at 87%, runner-up 72% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/manucon
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:41.469Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-01

## Headline

- Leader: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $130 billion?: Above $130 billion at 87%
- Runner-up: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $140 billion?: Above $140 billion at 72%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $130 billion?: Above $130 billion | 87¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-total-construction-spending-manufacturing-in-kalshi-kxmanucon-27feb01-t130 |
| Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $140 billion?: Above $140 billion | 72¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-total-construction-spending-manufacturing-in-kalshi-kxmanucon-27feb01-t140 |
| Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $150 billion?: Above $150 billion | 54¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-total-construction-spending-manufacturing-in-kalshi-kxmanucon-27feb01-t150 |
| Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $160 billion?: Above $160 billion | 41¢ | −7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-total-construction-spending-manufacturing-in-kalshi-kxmanucon-27feb01-t160 |
| Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $170 billion?: Above $170 billion | 23¢ | −8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-total-construction-spending-manufacturing-in-kalshi-kxmanucon-27feb01-t170 |
| Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $180 billion?: Above $180 billion | 15¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-total-construction-spending-manufacturing-in-kalshi-kxmanucon-27feb01-t180 |
| Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $190 billion?: Above $190 billion | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-total-construction-spending-manufacturing-in-kalshi-kxmanucon-27feb01-t190 |
| Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $220 billion?: Above $220 billion | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-total-construction-spending-manufacturing-in-kalshi-kxmanucon-27feb01-t220 |
| Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $200 billion?: Above $200 billion | 3¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-total-construction-spending-manufacturing-in-kalshi-kxmanucon-27feb01-t200 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $130 billion?: Above $130 billion | Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $140 billion?: Above $140 billion | Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $150 billion?: Above $150 billion |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | 86 | 71 | 54 |
| 2026-04-24 | — | 73 | 55 |
| 2026-04-25 | 88 | — | — |
| 2026-04-26 | — | 75 | 60 |
| 2026-04-27 | — | 77 | 58 |
| 2026-04-28 | 90 | — | 61 |
| 2026-04-29 | — | 73 | 55 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 15% probability represents the market's assessment that total construction spending will meet a specific threshold in an upcoming period. The current low probability suggests traders expect construction activity to remain below that benchmark. The main drivers of this assessment are recent economic data on construction activity, labor availability in the construction sector, and anticipated policy or interest-rate impacts on building investment. The primary catalyst for resolving this uncertainty will be the official construction spending release from the relevant statistical agency, which will provide definitive data against the contract's specific threshold. Between now and resolution, changes in mortgage rates, unemployment figures, and business confidence indicators could shift trader expectations significantly. The relatively low trading volume across related contracts indicates moderate market interest in this outcome.

### Key factors

- Construction spending data releases will directly test whether activity exceeds the specified threshold
- Interest rate movements affect borrowing costs and investment decisions for construction projects
- Labor market conditions, particularly wage pressure and availability, influence construction sector capacity and spending
- Private investment announcements and government infrastructure spending announcements signal future construction activity
- Seasonal patterns in construction spending may concentrate activity in specific quarters, affecting whether annual or quarterly thresholds are crossed

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/manucon
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=manucon

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