# Will Chris Boyd be the Democratic nominee for MA-04

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 56% across 10 contracts — refreshed 30 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/maprimary
Updated: 2026-06-26T01:20:50.004Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 56% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $389

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Roath | 41¢ | −2pp | $231 | kalshi | /markets/will-patrick-roath-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-m-kalshi-kxmaprimary-08d26-proa |
| Stephen Lynch | 57¢ | +3pp | $155 | kalshi | /markets/will-stephen-lynch-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-m-kalshi-kxmaprimary-08d26-slyn |
| Jeromie Whalen | 12¢ | ±0 | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-jeromie-whalen-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-kalshi-kxmaprimary-01d26-jwha |
| Richard Neal | 82¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-richard-neal-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-ma-kalshi-kxmaprimary-01d26-rnea |
| Lori Trahan | 93¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lori-trahan-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-ma-kalshi-kxmaprimary-03d26-ltra |
| Jake Auchincloss | 84¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jake-auchincloss-be-the-democratic-nominee-fo-kalshi-kxmaprimary-04d26-jauc |
| Jason Poulos | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jason-poulos-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-ma-kalshi-kxmaprimary-04d26-jpou |
| John Field | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-john-field-be-the-republican-nominee-for-ma-0-kalshi-kxmaprimary-06r26-jfie |
| Micah Jones | 89¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-micah-jones-be-the-republican-nominee-for-ma-kalshi-kxmaprimary-06r26-mjon |
| Bill Keating | 91¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bill-keating-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-ma-kalshi-kxmaprimary-09d26-bkea |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 22 |
| 2026-06-12 | 10 |
| 2026-06-19 | 32 |
| 2026-06-25 | 59 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Stephen Lynch +4pp 52→56¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Stephen Lynch +3pp 56→59¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability indicates that markets estimate a 37% chance Chris Boyd wins the Democratic primary for Massachusetts's 4th congressional district. The moderate probability suggests meaningful competition but Boyd as a plausible frontrunner. Primary dynamics in this district would be shaped by candidate name recognition, fundraising capacity, endorsements from local Democratic officials, and voter preferences across the district's demographic composition. The Democratic nominee will be determined by the primary election, which typically occurs in Massachusetts during the fall of election years. Comparably, other Massachusetts Democratic nominations show varying confidence levels—Lori Trahan leads MA-03 at 89%, while less-established candidates in other districts trade at single-digit percentages. Market pricing reflects uncertainty about candidate field strength, potential late entrants, and whether Boyd maintains momentum through primary season.

### Key factors

- Chris Boyd's current funding and fundraising trajectory relative to other potential MA-04 Democratic candidates
- Endorsements and support from established Massachusetts Democratic figures, particularly those representing or influential in the 4th district
- Whether competing primary candidates enter or exit the race before the filing deadline
- Voter polling or primary election results in neighboring Massachusetts districts (MA-03 and MA-08 showing high incumbent confidence at 89% and 88%)
- The timing and any declared intentions from incumbent Representative Jake Auchincloss regarding re-election or seeking higher office

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/maprimary
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=maprimary
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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