# María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...

> June 30 leads at 12%, runner-up 11% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 8 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mar-corina-machado-enters-venezuela
Updated: 2026-05-03T18:50:50.831Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: June 30 at 12%
- Runner-up: May 31 at 11%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $24K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 12¢ | −1pp | $6K | polymarket | /markets/mara-corina-machado-enters-venezuela-by-june-30-polymarket-0x8d6e53e9c96faed715f6fe20d7d1944f31bf203f980d8f3d94304c0a302381fc |
| May 31 | 11¢ | −2pp | $18K | polymarket | /markets/mara-corina-machado-enters-venezuela-by-may-31-polymarket-0x672088cca71a2ebd6743bef78eea08779df49de1fb27b3437af0c777abed3c40 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | June 30 | May 31 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 63 | 40 |
| 2026-04-19 | 34 | 16 |
| 2026-04-25 | 28 | 14 |
| 2026-04-26 | 22 | — |
| 2026-05-03 | 12 | 6 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-30 · May 31 −12pp 21→9¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · June 30 −12pp 31→19¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · June 30 +8pp 23→31¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · May 31 +7pp 14→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-26 · June 30 −6pp 28→22¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 12% probability reflects market estimates that María Corina Machado, Venezuela's opposition leader, will physically enter the country by June 30, 2026. Currently in exile, any return would represent a significant escalation in Venezuela's political crisis and could trigger immediate confrontation with the ruling government. The low probability reflects substantial barriers: security risks, government opposition, and uncertainty about whether conditions would permit safe entry. Markets are pricing in roughly a one-in-eight chance this occurs within the next two months. The key driver would be either major political instability that weakens government control or a negotiated agreement enabling her return. Related markets suggest lower confidence (9%) that she becomes leader by year-end, implying markets distinguish between entry and gaining power.

### Key factors

- Current location and movement: Machado is in exile; no confirmed plans or public timeline for return have been announced as of early May 2026
- Security environment: Venezuelan security forces have detained opposition figures; any return attempt would face high arrest or violence risk
- Government negotiations: Whether opposition, international parties, or the regime are pursuing dialogue that might enable safe passage
- Parallel market signals: Related contracts show 12% for head-of-state status by Dec 31 and 17% for leadership change, suggesting entry alone is insufficient for power transfer
- Historical precedent: Previous opposition figures attempting clandestine or negotiated returns to Venezuela have faced arrest or exile resumption

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mar-corina-machado-enters-venezuela
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mar-corina-machado-enters-venezuela

## License

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