# Will Marriott International report above 1.76 million total rooms in Q1 2026

> Closed. Final outcome: no. Last odds frozen 1 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mar
Updated: 2026-05-07T12:50:57.476Z
Category: general
Status: resolved
Closes: 2026-06-05

## Headline

- Probability: 5% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0
- Resolved: no

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.96 million | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-marriott-international-report-above-196-milli-kalshi-kxmar-26mayrooms-1960000.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 5 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract resolves based on whether Marriott International's total room count exceeds 1.76 million when the company reports first-quarter 2026 results. The 32% probability reflects modest pessimism about achieving this threshold. Marriott's room growth depends on two main variables: the pace of new property openings (particularly franchise deals in developing markets) and any potential closures or property divestments. The company typically reports Q1 earnings in late April or early May, which would resolve this contract. Historical context matters—Marriott reported approximately 1.74 million rooms at the end of 2024, so the question hinges on whether net additions over five quarters reach roughly 20,000 rooms. Market conditions, travel demand recovery, and franchisee investment appetite all influence development pipelines.

### Key factors

- Marriott's reported room count at end of 2024 was approximately 1.74 million, requiring ~20,000 net new rooms to clear 1.76 million by Q1 2026
- The company's historical quarterly net room growth rate and the size of its active development pipeline relative to closures
- Earnings report date in late April/early May 2026 will provide the definitive Q1 2026 room count figure
- Economic conditions and travel demand trends affecting franchisee investment decisions during 2024-2026
- Currency fluctuations and regional performance variations, particularly in international markets driving Marriott's growth

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/mar
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=mar

## License

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