# Will marijuana be legalized federally?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 22% across 12 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/marijuana-legalization
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:10.767Z
Category: legislation
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-20

## Headline

- Probability: 22% (liquidity-weighted across 12 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 24% / Polymarket 17% — 7pp spread
- 24h volume: $10K

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 5% | 3¢ | +1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-us-federal-deficit-to-gdp-for-fy2026-be-below-kalshi-kxdefgdp-26oct20-t5 |
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | 3¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-requires-proof-of-us-citizen-kalshi-kxelectionbill-aug01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 13¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-requires-proof-of-us-citizen-kalshi-kxelectionbill-27jan01 |
| Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? | 20¢ | ±0 | $227 | polymarket | /markets/will-cducsuspd-german-federal-coalition-break-befo-polymarket-0xe9507a620bd277e230da3b945af4dbd7278748c73c73b2704777cea088fbe568 |
| OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July? | 13¢ | +4pp | $111 | polymarket | /markets/openai-receives-federal-backstop-for-infrastructur-polymarket-0x388459f1cfd0d310154e13f16f49d31fd301e5e3502072c8b09d3a0697b2823f |
| DEFIANCE Act | 46¢ | −1pp | $93 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-creates-a-federal-civil-laws-kalshi-kxbills-defy |
| Yes | 3¢ | −1pp | $58 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-sitting-supreme-court-justice-be-charged-kalshi-kxsupremecourtcharge-27jan01 |
| Critical-minerals stockpile | 34¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-establishes-a-federal-critic-kalshi-kxbills-min |
| Before 2029 | 32¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-aprpove-a-new-city-on-federal-land-befo-kalshi-kxnewcity-29 |
| Housing for the 21st Century Act | 76¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-would-revise-federal-housing-kalshi-kxbills-hous |
| SELF DRIVE Act | 20¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-preempts-state-and-local-aut-kalshi-kxbills-drive |
| Trump's Birthday as a federal holiday | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-designates-june-14-the-birth-kalshi-kxbills-djtb |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 23 |
| 2026-05-25 | 41 |
| 2026-06-01 | 29 |
| 2026-06-08 | 27 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-04 · DEFIANCE Act −6pp 53→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Housing for the 21st Century Act −6pp 85→79¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July? +4pp 8→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-02 · Yes +3pp 1→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · Housing for the 21st Century Act −3pp 79→76¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/marijuana-legalization
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=marijuana-legalization

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.