# Will Indiana win the College Basketball National Championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 6% across 13 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/marmad
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:20:58.528Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-04-27

## Headline

- Probability: 6% (liquidity-weighted across 13 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $37K

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 4¢ | +1pp | $21K | kalshi | /markets/will-alabama-win-the-college-basketball-national-c-kalshi-kxmarmad-27-ala |
| Duke | 12¢ | ±0 | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-duke-win-the-college-basketball-national-cham-kalshi-kxmarmad-27-duke |
| Michigan | 12¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-michigan-win-the-college-basketball-national-kalshi-kxmarmad-27-mich |
| Arizona | 5¢ | −2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-arizona-win-the-college-basketball-national-c-kalshi-kxmarmad-27-ariz |
| Tennessee | 3¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-tennessee-win-the-college-basketball-national-kalshi-kxmarmad-27-tenn |
| UConn | 7¢ | −1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-uconn-win-the-college-basketball-national-cha-kalshi-kxmarmad-27-conn |
| Houston | 4¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-houston-win-the-college-basketball-national-c-kalshi-kxmarmad-27-hou |
| Illinois | 7¢ | −1pp | $590 | kalshi | /markets/will-illinois-win-the-college-basketball-national-kalshi-kxmarmad-27-ill |
| Florida | 11¢ | −1pp | $463 | kalshi | /markets/will-florida-win-the-college-basketball-national-c-kalshi-kxmarmad-27-fla |
| Kansas | 3¢ | −1pp | $334 | kalshi | /markets/will-kansas-win-the-college-basketball-national-ch-kalshi-kxmarmad-27-ku |
| Arkansas | 4¢ | +1pp | $306 | kalshi | /markets/will-arkansas-win-the-college-basketball-national-kalshi-kxmarmad-27-ark |
| Louisville | 4¢ | ±0 | $191 | kalshi | /markets/will-louisville-win-the-college-basketball-nationa-kalshi-kxmarmad-27-lou |
| Michigan St. | 4¢ | +1pp | $122 | kalshi | /markets/will-michigan-st-win-the-college-basketball-nation-kalshi-kxmarmad-27-msu |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 7 |
| 2026-04-19 | 8 |
| 2026-04-26 | 12 |
| 2026-05-03 | 7 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

Indiana's 6% probability reflects market assessment that the Hoosiers are unlikely to win the 2026 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball National Championship. This estimate sits between mid-tier contenders like UConn (7%) and stronger favorites like Duke and Michigan (both 12%). The probability would likely shift based on team performance during tournament play, roster health entering March Madness, and seed positioning. The NCAA Tournament selection process and subsequent bracket outcomes will determine whether Indiana advances deep enough to contend for the title. Key drivers include Indiana's regular season trajectory, conference tournament results, and NCAA Tournament seeding, which typically occur in early March and directly influence championship odds.

### Key factors

- Indiana's seed in the NCAA Tournament and strength of schedule in tournament matchups
- Team roster health and availability of key players entering the tournament
- Indiana's win-loss record and conference tournament performance relative to other tournament contenders
- Market liquidity and trading volume on Indiana contracts compared to higher-probability teams like Alabama (3%) and Duke (12%)
- Indiana's historical tournament success rate and whether current roster composition matches or exceeds past championship-caliber teams

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/marmad
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=marmad

## License

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