# Will Duke be a #1 seed for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Tournament

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 12% across 6 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/marmad1seed
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:43.467Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-04-15

## Headline

- Probability: 12% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UConn | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uconn-be-a-1-seed-for-the-2027-mens-college-b-kalshi-kxmarmad1seed-27-conn |
| Louisville | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-louisville-be-a-1-seed-for-the-2027-mens-coll-kalshi-kxmarmad1seed-27-lou |
| Duke | 21¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-duke-be-a-1-seed-for-the-2027-mens-college-ba-kalshi-kxmarmad1seed-27-duke |
| Michigan | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michigan-be-a-1-seed-for-the-2027-mens-colleg-kalshi-kxmarmad1seed-27-mich |
| Michigan St. | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michigan-st-be-a-1-seed-for-the-2027-mens-col-kalshi-kxmarmad1seed-27-msu |
| Florida | 26¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-florida-be-a-1-seed-for-the-2027-mens-college-kalshi-kxmarmad1seed-27-fla |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 42 |
| 2026-05-02 | 25 |
| 2026-05-08 | 14 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Michigan +49pp 1→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Michigan −25pp 34→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Michigan St. −22pp 26→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Michigan −16pp 50→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Florida +8pp 15→23¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Duke has a 16% probability of receiving a #1 seed in the 2027 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, meaning the prediction market estimates roughly a 1-in-6 chance. The probability reflects expectations about Duke's performance during the 2026-27 season, considering current roster composition, recruiting success, and historical program strength under head coach Jon Scheyer. Key drivers are player development and transfer portal acquisitions over the summer, which typically determine competitive positioning before the season begins. The main catalyst resolving uncertainty will be the actual 2026-27 season performance, culminating in tournament seeding announcements in March 2027. Current 16% odds suggest moderate skepticism about Duke's title contention, likely accounting for uncertainty around returning talent and the highly competitive ACC landscape.

### Key factors

- Duke's 2026-27 roster composition, including transfers acquired and declared departures, versus peer ACC/NCAA programs
- Scheyer's track record recruiting elite talent and developing NBA-caliber players in his tenure since 2021
- Strength of schedule and conference record during 2026-27 season relative to other projected top programs
- Performance metrics including net rating, defensive efficiency, and tournament resume strength entering March 2027
- Transfer portal activity and early-season indicators (November-December 2026) that inform updated probability assessments

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/marmad1seed
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=marmad1seed

## License

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