# Will Michigan St. qualify for the men's Semifinals

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 10% across 15 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/marmadround
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.600Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-05-02

## Headline

- Probability: 10% (liquidity-weighted across 15 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $19

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | 13¢ | ±0 | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-tennessee-qualify-for-the-mens-round-of-16-te-kalshi-kxmarmadround-27r16-tenn |
| Michigan | 13¢ | −4pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-michigan-qualify-for-the-mens-championship-ga-kalshi-kxmarmadround-27t2-mich |
| Florida | 16¢ | +9pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-florida-qualify-for-the-mens-championship-gam-kalshi-kxmarmadround-27t2-fla |
| Texas | 11¢ | −1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-qualify-for-the-mens-round-of-32-texas-kalshi-kxmarmadround-27r32-tex |
| Duke | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-duke-qualify-for-the-mens-championship-game-d-kalshi-kxmarmadround-27t2-duke |
| Houston | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-houston-qualify-for-the-mens-championship-gam-kalshi-kxmarmadround-27t2-hou |
| Kansas | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kansas-qualify-for-the-mens-championship-game-kalshi-kxmarmadround-27t2-ku |
| Iowa St. | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-iowa-st-qualify-for-the-mens-championship-gam-kalshi-kxmarmadround-27t2-isu |
| UConn | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uconn-qualify-for-the-mens-round-of-8-uconn-kalshi-kxmarmadround-27r8-conn |
| Duke | 25¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-duke-qualify-for-the-mens-round-of-8-duke-kalshi-kxmarmadround-27r8-duke |
| Arizona | 15¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-arizona-qualify-for-the-mens-round-of-8-arizo-kalshi-kxmarmadround-27r8-ariz |
| Purdue | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-purdue-qualify-for-the-mens-round-of-8-purdue-kalshi-kxmarmadround-27r8-pur |
| St. John's | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-st-johns-qualify-for-the-mens-round-of-32-st-kalshi-kxmarmadround-27r32-sju |
| UConn | 12¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uconn-qualify-for-the-mens-round-of-32-uconn-kalshi-kxmarmadround-27r32-conn |
| Villanova | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-villanova-qualify-for-the-mens-round-of-32-vi-kalshi-kxmarmadround-27r32-vill |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | 9 |
| 2026-05-02 | 19 |
| 2026-05-08 | 28 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Tennessee −31pp 34→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Tennessee −16pp 50→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Texas +14pp 11→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Michigan +12pp 14→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Florida +9pp 16→25¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents a 12% chance that Michigan State's men's basketball team will advance to the NCAA Tournament Semifinals. The low probability reflects the team's current standing relative to historical tournament performance and seeding patterns. Key drivers include the team's regular season record, tournament seeding position, and the relative strength of potential matchups in early rounds. The primary uncertainty will resolve through the NCAA Tournament selection process and subsequent games, with the most significant catalyst being the team's performance in the Big Ten Conference Tournament and the NCAA Tournament bracket reveal, typically occurring in early-to-mid March annually. Historical data shows that teams with lower seeds and weaker conference records rarely advance deep into tournament play, which largely explains the modest probability assessment.

### Key factors

- Current 12% probability implies expectations consistent with mid-to-late tournament seeding rather than high seed positioning
- Teams advancing to semifinals typically show strong regular season records and favorable tournament matchups in earlier rounds
- Michigan State's tournament path depends on specific bracket placement and opponent quality in rounds leading to semifinals
- Conference tournament performance and final regular season standings directly influence NCAA Tournament seeding and advancement likelihood
- Historical tournament data indicates single-elimination format makes deeper runs progressively less probable for lower-seeded teams

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/marmadround
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=marmadround

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.